2023 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (October)

Adapted Screenplay remains mostly the same as last month, just moving the pieces around a bit. One thing to think about is that United Artists has submitted Till for original screenplay but as the narrative feature utilizes significant content from co-writer Keith Beauchamp’s own documentary on Emmett Till (2005’s The Untold Story of Emmett Till) we could see the Academy deciding it’s adapted. It wouldn’t be the first time the Academy has changed things up in this category; 2016’s Best Picture winner Moonlight was campaigned as an original screenplay (where it was nominated at BAFTA and Critics’ Choice and won at WGA) but the writer’s branch of the Academy deemed it adapted, where it was nominated and eventually won. Till‘s chances of a screenplay nomination could be increased significantly in the adapted category.

For the last four years in a row, a non-English language film has made the cut in Original Screenplay, a great example of the impact of the ever-expanding Academy and the increase in international members. This year could see that falter in a very competitive category but that’s also the kind of thinking that would have kept one from predicting The Worst Person in the World getting in here over screenplays that hit every precursor. This year has contenders in Bardo and Decision to Leave, but Triangle of Sadness, while largely in English, still feels like the kind of pick from the writer’s branch that hits multiple sweet spots for them; a foreign director, a timely topic and a major festival winner.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for October.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
2. She Said (Universal Pictures) ↑
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↓
4. The Whale (A24) ↓
5. White Noise (Netflix)

6. Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. The Wonder (Netflix)
9. The Good Nurse (Netflix)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
Bones & All (MGM/UAR)
Devotion (Sony Pictures)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
5. TÁR (Focus Features) ↑

6. Bardo, Or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
7. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
8. Till (UAR/Orion) ↑
9. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↑

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Aftersun (A24)
Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Broker (NEON)
Bros (Universal Pictures)
Close (A24)
Elvis (Warner Bros)
Emancipation (Apple Original Films)
The Inspection (A24)
Nope (Universal Pictures) ↓
The Woman King (Columbia/Tri-Star) ↓

Image: Lynsey Weatherspoon / Orion Pictures