2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (November)

With both the Gothams and Spirit Awards announcing nominations, we’re just starting to see how some of these acting races and narratives can take early shape. Both groups have moved to non-gendered categories but the Oscars (and others) have not so for purposes of predictions, they’ll be more binary than that.

In supporting actress, Nina Hoss (TÁR) and Gabrielle Union (The Inspection) have risen above as the only two to be nominated by both awards bodies. While Hoss is attached to a definitive Best Actress frontrunner (as well as other top categories), Union might have a tougher go at it. But, it’s a great sign for her chances and at keeping her name in front of people.

Women Talking received the juried Robert Altman Award from the Spirit Awards for its ensemble, which removes any cast member from receiving an individual nomination. While that is by no means a ding in their real chances (Moonlight won here, then Mahersala Ali won the Supporting Actor Oscar), the collection of nominations is always a plus. Of this extensive cast, Jessie Buckley did get in at Gotham and I think had her film’s win here not removed her chances she would have been nominated for her supporting performance and continue to distance herself from co-star Claire Foy.

Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything All At Once) seems to be making some moves, earning a Spirit Awards nomination today (her co-star Stephanie Hsu was nominated in Breakthrough) and she has been working hard for Oscar to notice already this season. After a 45-year career without much awards recognition (although she does have a Golden Globe win for 1994’s True Lies and a BAFTA win for 1984’s Trading Places), she could really be making her mark this season.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for November.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24)
2. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
3. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
4. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
5. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↑

6. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓
7. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) ↓
8. Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
9. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
10. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios) ↑
11. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↓
12. Gabrielle Union – The Inspection (A24) ↑
13. Jean Smart – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
14. Laura Dern – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
15. Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↓
16. Olivia DeJonge – Elvis (Warner Bros)
17. Vanessa Kirby – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
18. Jennifer Ehle – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↑
19. Sadie Sink – The Whale (A24) ↓
20. Keke Palmer – Nope (Universal Pictures) ♦

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Charmaine Bingwa – Emancipation (Apple Original Films) ♦
Patricia Clarkson – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓
Greta Gerwig – White Noise (Netflix)
Whoopi Goldberg – Till (MGM/UAR) ↓
Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Kate Hudson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Judith Ivey – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
Nicole Kidman – The Northman (Focus Features)
Ximena Lamadrid – Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
Li Jun Li – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Lashana Lynch – The Woman King (Tri-Star)
Noémie Merlant – TÁR (Focus Features)
Samantha Morton – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Samantha Morton – The Whale (A24)
Griselda Sicillani – Bardo, or the False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
Nafessa Williams – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
Aimee Lou Wood – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)