2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR and BEST PICTURE (May)

Last year, I kicked off my Oscar predictions just after Cannes, after Ruben Östlund won his second Palme d’Or and took that win all the way to the Oscars with nominations for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. At the time I notched him at #13 and held back on top 5 placement until September, essentially against my own best arguments that the Cannes-to-Oscar pipeline has been so strong that it’s moved from a trend to an established streak, a regularity. As the director’s branch of the Academy has seen the largest percentage increase of international filmmakers it’s not hard to see the connection.

With that, and ahead of this year’s Cannes winners, I’m looking to who has the best shot to be that candidate. While we still have a few titles to be screened by the time this publishes, I think the two most likely contenders also happen to be the two that factor into the Best Actress race this year.

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest and Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall are the two biggest critical hits in competition and both star German actress Sandra Hüller. In the grand scheme of things I’m leaning to Glazer, in his first non-English language directed film, to be the main player in the Best Director race (I think A24 will take it everywhere) and Hüller to take center stage in the NEON-backed Triet (which I also expect to hit lots of fall fests).

Not in competition, but returning to the stage this year after being in my top 5 all season last year – until he wasn’t – is Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon. It took a minute for Apple to nail down the final release strategy of the film and debuting at Cannes (Scorsese’s first in 38 years) was a shrewd move. Cannes gets to be a great kick off but also offers some distance between the next series of festivals – Venice, Telluride and Toronto – that span the end of August to mid-September. Add to that a real theatrical release from Apple via Paramount Pictures and his place among the top 5 is solid.

Here are my 2024 Oscar Predictions in Best Director and Best Picture for May 2023.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
2. Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
3. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
4. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
5. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
6. Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part Two (Warner Bros)
7. Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) – Sundance
8. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
9. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
10. Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Other top contenders: Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios), Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON), Wes Anderson – Asteroid City (Focus Features), Luca Guadagnino – Challengers (MGM), Alice Rohrwacher – La Chimera (NEON), Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live? (GKIDS), Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw (A24), David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix), Ellen Kuras – Lee (TBD), Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix), Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Sofia Coppola – Priscilla (A24)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:

• Duke Johnson – The Actor (NEON)
• Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Jean-Stéphane Sauvaire – Black Flies (Open Road Films)
• Matt Johnson – BlackBerry (IFC Films)
• Steve McQueen – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Jeymes Samuel – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• George Clooney – The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
• Margaret Bettis – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Roger Ross Williams – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
• Alex Garland – Civil War (A24)
• Ethan Coen – Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
• Craig Gillespie – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Michael Mann – Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
• Christos Nikou – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Karim Ainouz – Firebrand (MGM)
• Garth Davis – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Rachel Morrison – Flint Strong (MGM)
• Matt Brown – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Sam Esmail – Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
• Jonathan Kent – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
• Reginald Marcus Green – Marley (Paramount Pictures)
• Benoit Delhomme – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
• Taika Waititi – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Jimmy Chin & Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi – Nyad (Netflix)
• Maryam Keshavarz – The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Malcolm Washington – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
• George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix)
• John Ridley – Shirley (Netflix)
• J.A. Bayona – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
• Johan Renck – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Andrew Haigh – Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Molly Gordon & Nick Lieberman – Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
• A. V. Rockwell – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
• Angelina Jolie – Without Blood (Freemantle)
• Paul King – Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: Michel Gondry – The Book of Solutions (TBD), Matteo Garrone – Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Edward Berger – Conclave (TBD), Patricia Arquette – Gonzo Girl (TBD), James Napier – Joika (TBD), Kirill Serebrennikov – Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Amat Escalante – Lost in the Night (TBD), Michel Franco – Memory (TBD), Warwick Thornton – The New Boy (TBD), James Hawes – One Life (TBD), Nora Fingscheidt – The Outrun (TBD), Anh Hung Tran – The Pot au Feu (TBD), Thea Sarrock – Wicked Little Letters (TBD)

BEST PICTURE

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
2. The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
3. Dune Part Two (Warner Bros)
4. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
5. The Zone of Interest (A24)
6. Maestro (Netflix)
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features)
8. Barbie (Warner Bros)
9. Past Lives (A24)
10. Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Other top contenders: Air (Amazon Studios), Anatomy of a Fall (NEON), Asteroid City (Focus Features), Challengers (MGM), La Chimera (NEON), How Do You Live? (GKIDS), The Iron Claw (A24), The Killer (Netflix), Lee (TBD), May December (Netflix), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Priscilla (A24)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:

• The Actor (NEON)
• The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Black Flies (Open Road Films)
• BlackBerry (IFC Films)
• Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
• The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
• Civil War (A24)
• Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
• Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
• Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Firebrand (MGM)
• Flint Strong (MGM)
• Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
• Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
• Marley (Paramount Pictures)
• Mothers Instinct (NEON)
• Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Nyad (Netflix)
• The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
• Rustin (Netflix)
• Shirley (Netflix)
• Society of the Snow (Netflix)
• Spaceman (Netflix)
• Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
• A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
• Without Blood (Freemantle)
• Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), The Pot au Feu (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)