2025 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (October)

With Emilia Pérez officially an adapted screenplay submission this is as good a time as any to kick off predictions for adapted and original screenplay.

That move doesn’t change its status with the Writers Guild where the screenplay is ineligible. As a signatory guild, you’re required to be a member in order to be nominated there, unlike the Directors Guild, for example. WGA nominations come out January 9, 2025.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for October.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Conclave — Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) (Focus Features)
2. Emilia Pérez — Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) (Netflix)
3. Nickel Boys — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) (Amazon MGM)
4. Sing Sing — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) (A24)
5. A Complete Unknown — Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald (Searchlight Pictures)
6. The Room Next Door — Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez) (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. I’m Still Here — Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega (based on “I’m Still Here” by Marcelo Rubens Paiva) (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Inside Out 2 — Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, Kelsey Mann (based on characters from the film “Inside Out”)
9. Dune: Part Two — Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert) (Warner Bros)
10. The Piano Lesson — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington (based on the play by August Wilson) (Netflix)

Next up: Gladiator II — David Scarpa, Peter Craig (based on characters by David Franzoni) (Paramount Pictures), Hit Man — Richard Linklater, Glen Powell (based on “Hit Man” by Skip Hollandsworth) (Netflix), Nosferatu — Robert Eggers (based on “Nosferatu – Eine Symphonie des Grauens” by Wilhelm Murnau and “Dracula” by Bram Stoker) (Focus Features), Queer — Justin Kuritzkes (based on the novel by William S. Burroughs) (A24), The Wild Robot — Chris Sanders (based on the series by Peter Brown) (Universal Pictures, Dreamworks Animation)

Other contenders: The Bikeriders — Jeff Nichols (based on “The Bikeriders” by Danny Lyon) (Focus Features), The Fire Inside — Barry Jenkins (based on “T-Rex” by Zackary Canepari, Drea Cooper) (Amazon MGM), Here — Eric Roth, Robert Zemeckis (based on “Here” by Richard McGuire) (Sony Pictures/Columbia Pictures), Unstoppable — Eric Champnella, Alex Harris, John Hindman (based on “Unstoppable: From Underdog to Undefeated: How I Became a Champion” by Anthony Robles, Austin Murphy) (Amazon MGM)

Original Screenplay

1. Anora — Sean Baker (NEON)
2. The Brutalist — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (A24)
3. A Real Pain — Jesse Eisenberg (Searchlight Pictures)
4. September 5 — Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum (Paramount Pictures)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — Mohammad Rasoulof (NEON)
6. Hard Truths — Mike Leigh (Bleecker Street)
7. The Substance — Coralie Fargeat (MUBI)
8. Blitz — Steve McQueen (Apple Original Films)
9. Saturday Night — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman (Sony Pictures)
10. All We Imagine as Light — Payal Kapadia (Janus Films/Sideshow)

Next up: Babygirl — Halina Reijn (A24), Challengers — Justin Kuritzkes (Amazon MGM), Dìdi — Sean Wang (Focus Features), His Three Daughters — Azazel Jacobs (Netflix), Maria — Steven Knight (Netflix)

Other contenders: The Apprentice — Gabriel Sherman (Briarcliff Entertainment), Better Man — Michael Gracey, Oliver Cole, Simon Gleeson (Paramount Pictures), Civil War — Alex Garland (A24), A Different Man — Aaron Schimberg (A24), I Saw the TV Glow — Jane Schoenbrun (A24), The End — Joshua Oppenheimer, Rasmus Heisterberg (NEON), Thelma — Josh Margolin (Magnolia Pictures), Woman of the Hour — Ian MacAllister McDonald (Netflix)