2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (August)

With Venice, TIFF and NYFF lineups revealed, save a few titles over the next couple of weeks, and Telluride just around the corner, who’s showing up where became almost less important than who’s not showing up anywhere.

Top contenders like Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) and Mikey Madison (Anora) are either already receiving honors, hitting multiple festivals or both. Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore in The Room Next Door aren’t open and shut cases for category placement just yet; an argument could be made for either actress even as source material, Sigrid Nunez’s “What Are You Going Through,” is positioned with Moore’s character as the storyteller. Last month I had Swinton in the top tier, this month I’m going with Moore. Because I can do that.

So among the early predicted contenders, who among them are not finding themselves with a decent festival run (we still have all those regionals), a release date or even a distributor yet? Or worse, a combination of the three? Right off the bat, we can probably knock out Glenn Close in Summer Book, who hits all three strikes. Cate Blanchett in Father, Mother, Sister, Brother as well. For Anne Hathaway and Michael Coel in Mother Mary, the A24 release hasn’t made a peep and has not been dated. Same goes for MGM’s Long Day’s Journey Into Night (a film I still don’t believe actually exists) so that drops off Jessica Lange. Tessa Thompson in Hedda from Amazon MGM is also looking like a 2025 release. Pamela Anderson is primed for a glorious comeback with just TIFF biting for The Last Showgirl, I’m getting vibes of a late pickup and a 2025 release like we’ve seen several times before, including with Colman Domingo in Sing Sing and Glenn Close in The Wife. But even Jolie, whom I have pretty locked in, has two of those markers. Still without official (or at least announced) distribution less than two weeks before its splashy Venice bow is a bit concerning and it will be until it’s not. Speaking of Jolie, while her Maria will hit Venice, Telluride and NYFF, her directed feature Without Blood will world premiere at TIFF, giving Salma Hayek a chance to return to the Oscar conversation more than 20 years after her first and only nomination, for 2002’s Frida.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for August.

• 1. Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
• 2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (TBA)
• 3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
• 4. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON)
• 5. Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
• 6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
• 7. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24)
• 8. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI)
• 9. Salma Hayek – Without Blood (Fremantle)
• 10. Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros)

Next up: Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (TBA), Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance (Apple Original Films), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (A24), Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics), Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics), Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment), Zendaya – Challengers (Amazon MGM)

Lead or supporting?: Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures), Ariana Grande – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures), Salma Hayek – Without Blood (Fremantle), Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films), Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)

Other contenders: Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Ariana Grande – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Anna Kendrick – Woman of the Hour (Netflix), Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Tuesday (A24), Fernanda Montenegro – Vitória (TBA), Julianne Nicholson – Janet Planet (A24), Emma Stone – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Tilda Swinton – The End (NEON), Robin Wright – Here (Sony Pictures/TriStar)

2024 or 2025?: Cate Blanchett – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (TBA), Michaela Coel – Mother Mary (A24), Glenn Close – The Summer Book (TBA), Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary (A24), Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Fernanda Montenegro – Vitória (TBA), Kristin Scott Thomas – Women in the Castle (TBA), Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon MGM)