2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (July)

Sony Pictures Classics, one of the best in the business for Best Actress contenders, has a cornucopia of choices here this year, a dilemma most studios would love to have but might prove difficult when needing to focus on a campaign. They recently picked up the Saoirse Ronan-starrer The Outrun for an October release, long after its Sundance bow in last January and as long as Ronan goes supporting for Apple’s Blitz from Steve McQueen – which will premiere at the BFI London Film Festival and close the New York Film Festival – she won’t be battling herself for a nomination. They also have Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore in Pedro Almodóvar’s Venice-bound The Room Next Door; it’s a toss-up as to who is lead and supporting here (I’m going with Swinton for now but it remains open). Rounding out their robust lineup is Fernanda Torres in Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, which will hit both Venice and Toronto this season. As you’ll remember or know from Oscar history, Salles directed Fernanda Montenegro to a Best Actress nomination for 1998’s Central Station (she lost to Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love) and, interestingly enough, Montenegro is a possible outside contender herself this season with Vitória but without a distributor or even some 2024 festival dates, it’s probably a safer bet that it ends up a 2025 release in the U.S.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for July.

• 1. Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
• 2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (TBA)
• 3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
• 4. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON)
• 5. Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
• 6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
• 7. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24)
• 8. Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros)
• 9. Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics)
• 10. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI)

Next up: Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (TBA), Glenn Close – The Summer Book (TBA), Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance (Apple Original Films), Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary (A24), Salma Hayek – Without Blood (Fremantle), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (A24), Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics), Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment), Zendaya – Challengers (Amazon MGM)

Lead or supporting?: Michaela Coel – Mother Mary (A24), Glenn Close – The Summer Book (TBA), Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures), Ariana Grande – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films), Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)

Other contenders: Cate Blanchett – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (TBA), Michaela Coel – Mother Mary (A24), Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Ariana Grande – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Anna Kendrick – Woman of the Hour (Netflix), Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Tuesday (A24), Fernanda Montenegro – Vitória (TBA), Julianne Nicholson – Janet Planet (A24), Elizabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Kristin Scott Thomas – Women in the Castle (TBA), Emma Stone – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Tilda Swinton – The End (NEON), Robin Wright – Here (Sony Pictures/TriStar)

2024 or 2025?: Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Fernanda Montenegro – Vitória (TBA), Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon MGM)