2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (October)

It’s time to pump it up!

With The Substance turning into a surprising box office hit (nearly $15M) and building good will towards Demi Moore, she climbing higher and higher, aiming all the way to an Oscar win like her character Elizabeth Sparkle achieves in the film. She’ll need that good will to extend to a nomination path that begins with the Gotham and Spirit Awards nominations, either or both of which should be in reach. A Screen Actors Guild nomination, which would be her first, is what she’ll really need. And MUBI has been cagey so far about whether they’re submitting the film in drama or comedy/musical at the Golden Globes. Either placement has its own strategy as well as a deep bench of competition. In comedy she’ll go up against Mikey Madison in Anora (who feels like a clear runaway winner) as well as Karla Sofía Gascón in Emilia Pérez, Cynthia Erivo in Wicked, Zendaya in Challengers and Amy Adams in Nightbitch, among others. But drama is super stacked too with Angelina Jolie in Maria, Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun, with several more contenders chomping at the bit. Having six spots in each category certainly helps but the overall strategy MUBI and more set with placement will tell the story. [UPDATE: The Substance has officially been submitted in the comedy/musical categories for the Golden Globes]

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for October.

1. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON)
2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix)
3. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24)
4. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
5. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI)
6. Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
8. Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
9. Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
10. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics)

Next up: Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions), Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures), Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment), Zendaya – Challengers (Amazon MGM)

Other contenders: Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance (Apple Original Films), Anna Kendrick – Woman of the Hour (Netflix), Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Tuesday (A24), Julianne Nicholson – Janet Planet (A24), Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (A24), Emma Stone – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Tilda Swinton – The End (NEON), Robin Wright – Here (Sony Pictures/Columbia)