2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (December)

Unlike Supporting Actor, there’s no runaway frontrunner here, it’s a wide open field that has seen wins for 13 actresses across the major festivals and first two weeks of critics awards.

Ariana Grande-Butera (Wicked) leads those wins, thanks to regional critics like Iowa and Michigan, with six, ahead of Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance), who have scooped up three apiece. Then we have where Critics Choice and the Golden Globes cross, nominating Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) as well as Grande-Butera and Qualley, in both. As in Best Actress, it’s going to be a bit of a nail-biter all season, as SAG and BAFTA nominations are likely to do little more than lock in three contenders (maybe four?) and leave just enough room for lots of speculation.

While the surge for Qualley this week is noticeable – she’s winning regional awards where Demi Moore isn’t – there’s something that still feels just a bit off. Maybe it’s a little bit Mila Kunis/Black Swan, maybe it’s a little bit that The Substance support with the Oscar shortlists was only their for makeup. It’s certainly not as strong as that film was, or at least it doesn’t have the runaway win for its leading star.

Where that puts us right is a very solid top 3 and then no less than five actresses competing for two spots: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Deadwyler, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Qualley and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez). Jones and Ellis-Taylor as previous nominees gives them a slight edge. Gomez could very well benefit from what we’ve already seen with her film, massive nomination and win numbers from the Globes, CCA and European Film Academy.

The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15 and right in between there the Screen Actors Guild will have their say with nominations on January 8. By then we’ll also have the lion’s share of individual critics’ group having chimed in with their winners in acting categories, among others.

Academy Award nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for December.

Next up (alphabetical): 

Other contenders: Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Leonie Benesch – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Glenn Close – The Deliverance (Netflix), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Toni Collette – Juror #2 (Warner Bros), Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), Jennifer Grey – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Moses Ingram – The End (NEON), Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), Lesley Manville – Queer (A24), Connie Nielsen – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Katy O’Brian –  Love Lies Bleeding (A24) – Gotham, Elizabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24), Emily Watson – Small Things Happen (Lionsgate)