2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST CASTING (June)

The great thing about having a new category to predict is that we don’t have anything from the Academy to rely on in terms of trends or historical reference, Oscar-wise. With Best Casting, an award going to a casting director (or directors) of a film, having its inaugural year this season, there are so many ways this could go.

For some back story, casting directors did not have a branch of their own until 2013, as they were a part of the Members-at-Large branch. After casting got their own branch, 210 members were pulled from Members-at-Large to create it and as of today, has more than doubled in size to 544 people, making them the second-fastest growing branch in the Academy, after only Documentary. Actors remain the largest individual branch but shrinking in terms of percentage every year.

First, let’s look at the official rules for the category, which were codified earlier this year, because while they answer certain questions, they definitely raise others.

–There will be a preliminary round of voting to determine a shortlist of 10 films, and prior to nominations voting, Casting Directors Branch members will be invited to view a “bake-off” presentation of the shortlisted achievements, including a Q&A with the designated nominees.

–The Branch Executive Committee will then meet to discuss and determine which casting directors – not to exceed two in number – are primarily responsible for the casting and who have received onscreen credit. Producers and directors may be consulted in determining the contribution of potential nominees. Under exceptional circumstances (e.g., specialized casting, essential casting in multiple locations) the Branch Executive Committee will consider and determine the eligibility of one additional credited individual.

–The casting directors associated with the ten films on the shortlist for nominations shall be requested to provide the committee with the following:

-Written descriptions of the casting process unique to their films and of their personal involvement in that process. A template for the statement with the guidelines regarding length and scope will be provided by the Branch Executive Committee.

-Photo grid of the cast and/or the full cast list.

–Achievements shall be judged within the parameters defined by the Executive Committee and on the basis of significant engagement and collaboration with a film’s director and producers in the creative consideration, and selection of the actors who comprise the acting ensemble of the film.

Like in Best Picture, the number of nominees is essentially locked at two but can be challenged in cases where a third nominee could be included. This presumably would happen mostly for films with casting directors that work in pairs and then have a third. However, there is no stipulation on how many nominations a single person can receive in the category (just like every other Oscar category save acting, which should be amended, but I digress) so I imagine we’ll see at least one name repeated on Oscar nomination morning with so many big time players getting the first chance to be rewarded at this level.

But how much credit does a casting director get for high profile, A-list actors heading up films? Who’s more responsible for Leonardo DiCaprio being in One Battle After Another, casting director Cassandra Kulukundis or director Paul Thomas Anderson? Kulukundis has been Anderson’s casting director on all of his films since Magnolia so she’s clearly is a power player here. But if PTA wants DiCaprio in his film, he’s the driving force, no? These are questions that are going to circle this category, at least in the area of predicting and prognosticating, probably forever, and less so internally, but it’s worth talking about how nominations and nominees will be determined and how it looks from the outside.

What about directors who literally are their own casting directors? Look at last season where Sean Baker was nominated and won four Oscars: Best Picture for Anora as a producer, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and Best Editing. Had this category been in place last year would he have been nominated won a fifth? I would say it would have been very likely. The editing win showed us that.

Even though the Casting branch will be doing the nominating, it might seem from the outside that the category has a bit of a secondary Best Picture quality to it, much like how the Screen Actors Guild Cast category feels like a defacto Best Picture category there in many ways.

What we do have though is Casting Society (CSA), the official guild of casting directors, and their Artios Awards. Like many guilds, they have several categories vs the Oscars single representation. Combing through Big Budget Comedy, Studio or Independent Drama, International and Low Budget Comedy or Drama, familiar names will start to pop out: Lucy Bevan, Francine Maisler; Jennifer Venditti and Nina Gold each have three major titles this year, all in contention for top tier acting nominations. Then you add the likes of other casting legends like Avy Kaufman, Sarah Finn, Randi Hiller and Mary Vernieu and we could see a number of Diane Warren-level of folks getting in year after year after year. Not undeserved, mind you, just by virtue of quantity and internal popularity.

I expect, similar to the SAG cast nominees, we’ll see a mix of large ensembles and more intimately populated films represented from Sinners and Wicked For Good to Sentimental Value and of course, biopics like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, The Smashing Machine and Marty Supreme should make some noise here.

Here are my 2026 Oscar predictions in Best Casting for June.

Other contenders: Ann Lee – Beatrix Nemesházi, Isabella Odoffin (TBD), At the Sea – Rebecca Dealy, Jessica Kelly, Lisa Lobel (TBD), Avatar: Fire and Ash – Margery Simkin (20th Century Studios), A Big Bold Beautiful Journey – Francine Maisler, Molly Rose (Sony Pictures), Blue Moon – Áine O’Sullivan, Olivia Scott-Webb (Sony Pictures Classics), Eddington – Ellen Chenoweth (A24), F1: The Movie – Lucy Bevan, Emily Brockmann (Apple/Warner Bros), Highest 2 Lowest – Kim Coleman (Apple/A24), Kiss of the Spider Woman – Adam Caldwell, Tiffany Little Canfield (Roadside Attractions), The Life of Chuck – Anne McCarthy, Morgan Robbins, Kellie Roy (NEON), The Lost Bus – Francine Maisler (Apple), The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues (NEON)