2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (June)

With Cannes in the rear view mirror we find ourselves midyear and with it, winners like It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, Sound of Falling, The Secret Agent, Sirât and more to start shaping the Oscar race, as it so often has this last decade. With NEON’s sixth Palme d’Or in a row, it’s impossible not to stay focused on its upcoming slate, even if the buying frenzy the studiolette went on during the final week of the festival all but ensured its top win, as well as several others.

Where Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value was already a top contender (and a NEON pick up pre-festival that ended up with the Grand Prix), the buys of eventual Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident from Jafar Panahi and The Secret Agent (which would end up with two major wins, Kleber Mendonça Filho for Best Director and Wagner Moura for Best Actor) during the festival raise their profile immensely across several categories but how many films can NEON, fresh off its second Best Picture win in just their mere eight years of existence, maneuver into a Best Picture top 10. That doesn’t even take into account their 2024 TIFF People’s Choice Award winner The Life of Chuck, which was just released theatrically earlier this month. Usually a very easy barometer for predicting a Best Picture nomination, the year-long gap from its win to the next Oscar season and dismal box office will probably make the win a rare blip.

Other Cannes winners with studio pick ups like Sound of Falling (MUBI), which shared the Jury Prize with Oliver Laxe’s Sirât (another mid-festival NEON buy) feel more in line with being potential International Feature Film contenders, which also includes The President’s Cake, a Sony Pictures Classic acquisition that scored the Camera d’Or prize for best first film of the entire festival and the audience award for Director’s Fortnight.

Harry Lighton’s dom/sub romance Pillion (A24) found itself with the screenplay award for films in the Un Certain Regard section and Urchin, the feature film directorial debut from actor Harris Dickinson, earned the best actor award for its star Frank Dillane. The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo and Once Upon a Time in Gaza were among other top UCR wins and are still in search of distribution. Not a group that’s likely to crack into the Best Picture and Best Director categories but could find some awards love along the way in the form of critics groups.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for June.

BEST PICTURE

Next up: Ann Lee (TBD), At the Sea (TBD), F1 (Apple/Warner Bros), Nouvelle Vague (Netflix), Train Dreams (Netflix), Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

Other contenders: Anemone (Focus Features), A Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures), Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Die, My Love (MUBI), The Drama (A24), Eleanor the Great (Sony Pictures Classics), Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Highest 2 Lowest (Apple/A24), The History of Sound (MUBI), If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures), The Life of Chuck (NEON), The Mastermind (MUBI), The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Pressure (Focus Features), The Rivals of Amziah King (TBD), Untitled Kathryn Bigelow (Netflix)

BEST DIRECTOR

Next up: Mona Fastvold – Ann Lee (TBD), Joseph Kosinski – F1 (Apple/Warner Bros)

Other contenders: Ronan Day-Lewis – Anemone (Focus Features), Kornél Mundruczó – At the Sea (TBD), Kogonada – A Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures), Richard Linklater – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Lynne Ramsay – Die, My Love (MUBI), Kristoffer Borgli – The Drama (A24), James L. Brooks – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Oliver Hermanus – The History of Sound (MUBI), Taika Waititi – Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures), Mike Flanagan – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Anthony Maras – Pressure (Focus Features), Wes Anderson – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Kathryn Bigelow – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow (Netflix)