Directors Guild (DGA), Cinematographers society (ASC), Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Preview and Predictions

Saturday, January 25th will hold no less than five guild or industry awards ceremonies thanks to the shortened Oscar season (including the Annies and the USC Scripter) and here I’ll detail my preview and predictions for the Directors Guild (DGA), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS).

With the Producers Guild (PGA) going for 1917 and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) going for Parasite we’re on deck for a real horse race this season as we careen around the corner to the Academy Awards on February 9th. The BAFTAs reveal the week before but their track record this decade, thanks to Oscar’s preferential ballot, has been spotty at best.

The DGA however, is as solid a predictor for who will win the Best Director Oscar as it gets. Were it not for Ben Affleck’s shocking snub for 2012’s Argo, the DGA to Oscar matchup would be 100% for this decade so far. 66% of the time we saw DGA, BAFTA and Oscar all align although, only three times did the DGA-winning director helm Oscar’s Best Picture (Hazanavicius, Affleck and de Toro – see chart below).

This year is a fight between Sam Mendes (1917) for his second win (and his first in 20 years after 1999’s American Beauty) and Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) for his first. The late-breaking 1917 has already defied quite a bit of history to become a frontrunner as a Christmas Day limited release with no festival run but Mendes won the Golden Globe and tied with Bong at Critics’ Choice. But those aren’t industry. They can sometime set the pace (or roll with it, as the CCA tries to do) but the Directors Guild (and BAFTA next week) will tell us where the wind is blowing. Does a Bong win here foretell a Best Picture win in two weeks? It might but I it’s hard to think that the DGA (and the Oscars) won’t be dazzled by the difficulty level of 1917 and if this last decade of director winners proves anything it’s that risky, wild and over the top directorial achievements are what gets you the gold.

The First-Time Feature Director nominees, unlike the all-boys club of the main award, has three female nominees yet, like the directing prize at the Spirit Awards last year, it feels like it will still likely to go a man. Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) was weirdly snubbed here despite earning the most critics’ citations for a first film/first-time director. But Joe Talbot (The Last Black Man in San Francisco) was close behind. Alma Ha’rel (Honey Boy) has probably pressed more flesh than anyone in this category so she’s a distinct possibility as a winner.

FILM YEAR	DGA	BAFTA	OSCAR
2010	Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech	David Fincher, The Social Network	Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech**
2011	Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist	Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist**	Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist**
2012	Ben Affleck, Argo*	Ben Affleck, Argo**	Ang Lee, Life of Pi
2013	Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity	Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity	Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2014	Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman	Richard Linklater, Boyhood**	Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman**
2015	Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant	Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant**	Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
2016	Damien Chazelle, La La Land	Damien Chazelle, La La Land**	Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2017	Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water	Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water	Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water**
2018	Alfonso Cuarón, Roma	Alfonso Cuarón, Roma**	Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

*not Oscar-nominated **also won Best Picture/Film

The 2019 Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film are:

• Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
• Sam Mendes, 1917
• Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
• Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

My prediction: Sam Mendes, 1917 with a good chance for Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

The 2019 Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director are:

• Mati Diop, Atlantics
• Alma Har’el, Honey Boy
• Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
• Joe Talbot, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
• Tyler Nilson and Michael Schwartz, The Peanut Butter Falcon

My prediction: Joe Talbot, The Last Black Man in San Francisco with Alma Har’el, Honey Boy as a possible spoiler.

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AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS (ASC)

In this decade, the every winner of the cinematography Oscar was at least nominated for the ASC first, five have won. That essentially eliminates The Lighthouse‘s chances. Blade Runner 2049 will remain the only cinematography Oscar winner to not come from a Best Picture nominee. Emmanuel Lubezki’s record-setting three-year winning streak ran through ASC, BAFTA and Oscar; a feat I can’t imagine happening any time soon. In Roger Deakins’ Oscar-winning year, he also ran the table Blade Runner 2049. It’s unlikely we’ll have a year like 2011 where the prize went to three different cinematographers across ASC, BAFTA and Oscar.

Roger Deakins (1917) will close out the decade with his third DGA win on his way to his second Oscar. Seven of ten years of ASC will be shared by just two people. When they like you here, they really like you.

FILM YEAR	ASC	BAFTA	OSCAR
2010	Wally Pfister, Inception	Roger Deakins, True Grit	Wally Pfister, Inception
2011	Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life	Guillaume Shiffman, The Artist	Robert Richardson, Hugo
2012	Roger Deakins, Skyfall	Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi	Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
2013	Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity	Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity	Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
2014	Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman	Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman	Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
2015	Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant	Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant	Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
2016	Greig Fraser, Lion	Linus Sandgren, La La Land	Linus Sandgren, La La Land
2017	Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049	Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049	Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
2018	Łukasz Żal, Cold War	Alfonso Cuarón, Roma	Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) nominees are:

• Roger Deakins, 1917
• Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari
• Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman
• Lawrence Sher, Joker
• Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

My prediction: Roger Deakins, 1917 (no spoiler).

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CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY (CAS)

Only one time this decade has a non-CAS nominee gone on to with the Sound Mixing Oscar (2014’s Whiplash). This year, 1917 missed CAS but is still the frontrunner for the Oscar. Since BAFTA has a single sound category that encompasses both sound mixing and sound editing, it is not included in the side-by-side comparisons.

Vroom vroom, bitches. This should be Ford v Ferrari‘s to lose, which could give it enough gas going into Oscar voting to also translate that to a sound mixing win. The musical biopic Bohemian Rhapsody won here and at the Oscars but this year’s version, Rocketman, got in at CAS but was Oscar-snubbed. Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are the only possible spoilers.

FILM YEAR	CAS	OSCAR
2010	True Grit	Inception
2011	Hugo	Hugo
2012	Les Misérables	Les Misérables
2013	Gravity	Gravity
2014	Birdman	Whiplash*
2015	The Revenant	Mad Max: Fury Road
2016	La La Land	Hacksaw Ridge
2017	Dunkirk	Dunkirk
2018	Bohemian Rhapsody	Bohemian Rhapsody

*not CAS-nominated

The 2019 Cinema Audio Society (CAS) nominees are:

• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Joker
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Rocketman

My prediction: Ford v Ferrari with a chance of a Joker spoiler.