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The 89th Academy Awards are this Sunday, February 26th and the FINAL Oscar winner predictions from the Gold Rush Gang are locked and loaded.
It’s been an easy ride for some, like Best Picture frontrunner La La Land. The film captured the Golden Globe and BAFTA for Best Film plus the PGA and DGA. Losing after all of that would be a total shock, especially in an era of a preferential Best Picture ballot that rewards consensus over passion. That isn’t to say there isn’t a chance for an upset by Moonlight or SAG ensemble winner Hidden Figures here, just really unlikely. Even the attempts at a backlash this season (‘a white guy mansplaining jazz!’) didn’t pan out. It’s going to be an interesting Oscars regardless of the winners. The state of the country post-election has put everyone at a high level of unrest and concern. Hollywood has really been vocal in its opposition to the President and his administration and is going to feel the need to protect itself. Meryl Streep’s rip-roaring Golden Globes speech detailed that Hollywood is under attack. “Hollywood, foreigners and the press,” she details and then follows with name-checking major stars and where they were born and perfectly describes that Hollywood is just a bunch of people from other places. While there will be passion for films like Moonlight and Fences and Hidden Figures for their representation of people of color in a post-#OscarsSoWhite awards season, it’s the safety of La La Land, a film that celebrates the history of film itself that will be an undeniable choice.
But some categories are still, as of right now, very open. Best Actor is probably the biggest question mark. We all know that Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) dominated the critics’ awards this season. He continued by winning the Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globe against his only rival, Denzel Washington (Fences). Then when they came to their first head to head with an industry award, the Screen Actors Guild, Washington stopped Affleck’s run. Affleck came back with BAFTA but Washington wasn’t nominated there (he’s never been) so we’re left wondering – will Affleck push through or will the Academy at large want to give Washington, the most respected and rewarded black actor in Hollywood history, a third Oscar a la Meryl Streep? We won’t know until Brie Larson opens that envelope and answers that question.
LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #51 – Final Oscar Winner Predictions
Another thing that’s up in the air is just how much La La Land will win. In last week’s predictions, the Gold Rush Gang had the film winning 10 of its 14 nominations. Since it’s double-nominated in Original Song it can only max out at 13, which would be enough for the all-time record. But that would mean it would have to win things like Sound Editing (not out of the realm of possibility if people simply name-check their ballots) but also Ryan Gosling in Best Actor (a really big stretch, like reeeeallly big). While things like Cinematography, Film Editing and Sound Mixing all feel very safe for the modern-day musical what about Costume Design and Production Design? Modern-day films just don’t win these and since their respective guilds separate categories for Contemporary, Period and Fantasy, La La Land‘s wins there aren’t the bellwether they should be. The film faltered quite a bit at BAFTA where it lost both of those categories when going head to head with its Oscar competition (Jackie in Costumes and Fantastic Beasts in Production Design) but the Oscars are a different animal. The GRG still has LLL winning 10 Oscars but two categories – Costumes and Original Screenplay are neck-and-neck and could go either way. It won screenplay at the Globes as part of its historic sweep but lost it at WGA and BAFTA to Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, respectively, showing that the love for the film seems like it only extends so far.
What La La Land‘s potential sweep will do is something we haven’t seen recently at the Oscars, a lot of Best Picture nominees going home empty-handed. Since the BP expansion in 2009 most years have seen the wealth spread but this year, if the Gold Rush Gang’s predictions are right, we could see Arrival, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, Lion and even Manchester by the Sea get zilch. That’s five of nine films, which goes against the last seven years but if there was any year it could happen, it’s this one.
Here are the FINAL 2017 Oscar winner predictions from the Gold Rush Gang.
| BEST PICTURE | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | CHRIS PEPPER | EVAN KOST | JAMES NARVEY | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE | MONIKA NIKOLIĆ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ROBERT SCHIRMER | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La La Land | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Moonlight | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 90 |
| 3 | Manchester By the Sea | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 77 |
| 4 | Lion | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 68 |
| 5 | Arrival | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 58 |
| 6 | Hidden Figures | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 52 |
| 7 | Hacksaw Ridge | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 41 |
| 8 | Hell or High Water | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 30 |
| 9 | Fences | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 24 |
| DIRECTING | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | CHRIS PEPPER | EVAN KOST | JAMES NARVEY | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE | MONIKA NIKOLIĆ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ROBERT SCHIRMER | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damien Chazelle, La La Land | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50 |
| 2 | Barry Jenkins, Moonlight | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 40 |
| 3 | Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 25 |
| 4 | Denis Villeneuve, Arrival | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 5 | Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | CHRIS PEPPER | EVAN KOST | JAMES NARVEY | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE | MONIKA NIKOLIĆ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ROBERT SCHIRMER | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denzel Washington, Fences | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 47 |
| 2 | Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 43 |
| 3 | Ryan Gosling, La La Land | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 29 |
| 4 | Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | CHRIS PEPPER | EVAN KOST | JAMES NARVEY | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE | MONIKA NIKOLIĆ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ROBERT SCHIRMER | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emma Stone, La La Land | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50 |
| 2 | Isabelle Huppert, Elle | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 37 |
| 3 | Natalie Portman, Jackie | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 33 |
| 4 | Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Ruth Negga, Loving | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
| ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | CHRIS PEPPER | EVAN KOST | JAMES NARVEY | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE | MONIKA NIKOLIĆ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ROBERT SCHIRMER | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahershala Ali, Moonlight | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50 |
| 2 | Dev Patel, Lion | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 39 |
| 3 | Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 30 |
| 4 | Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | CHRIS PEPPER | EVAN KOST | JAMES NARVEY | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE | MONIKA NIKOLIĆ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ROBERT SCHIRMER | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viola Davis, Fences | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50 |
| 2 | Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 40 |
| 3 | Naomie Harris, Moonlight | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 25 |
| 4 | Nicole Kidman, Lion | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 5 | Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
Next: Adapted and Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design and Costume Design
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