Feel the Dern, baby.
There’s really nothing that can stop Laura Dern (Marriage Story) from winning her first Oscar and no amount of ‘but she was better in Little Women!’ or ‘This is a career win!’ can change that. In fact, those are two things that just add to her cache.
Dern is about as Hollywood royalty and legacy as you can get, with Oscar-nominated parents, working in the industry since she was a teenager, being a previous nominee and being on the Board of Governors of the Academy. She’s won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA and is in a Best Picture nominee. That combination has never lost and she’s also her film’s best (only) chance at winning an Oscar. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) gave her chase with the critics awards, and even edged her out there, but ultimately missed out on the nomination to a previous Oscar winner, Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell.
Let’s say for argument’s sake she has competition. Who’s next, her Marriage Story co-star Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit? Margot Robbie in Bombshell? I’ve gone back and forth but it’s probably Johansson in the stronger film even of Robbie is the kind of ingenue the Academy has often embraced here.
Here are my ranked Final Oscar predictions for Supporting Actress with a chart of a decade of related precursors and history.
|1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story (Netflix)||BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG|
|2. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)||BAFTA, SAG|
|3. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (Lionsgate)||BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG|
|4. Florence Pugh – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)||BAFTA, CCA|
|5. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (Warner Bros)||GG|