FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions: 2025 BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR

It’s probably fair to say that after all of the nominations and precursors we have that we all likely have the same top seven films we think are getting into the Best Picture 10: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance. From there, we’re looking at four films eyeing three spots: Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, September 5 and Sing Sing.

Although I don’t consider the AFI Top 10 a precursor the same way that BAFTA or PGA are, a group that consistently skews very close to Oscar’s top 10 or PGA’s top 10 is still a good barometer for how the Academy choices may look. You can look at the predictions and color charts below to see how these groups align. For the graphic, I usually list each group alphabetically but for Best Picture, I’ve moved both BAFTA and SAG to the right as they have only five spots vs the ten for AFI, PGA and Critics Choice and twelve for the Golden Globes. It’s just a cleaner visual.

Essentially, the Best Picture 10 could look like either AFI, PGA or Critics Choice but only once, last year, has PGA and Oscar aligned 10/10. While it’s possible this year, and September 5 somehow sneaks in with its sole Globe nod in Best Picture, PGA nod and zero presence at BAFTA or in major CCA categories. It would be a passion vote. In fact, these last three spots are the best example of how passion votes in the top 10 system at the Oscars work. Nickel Boys could be a lone screenplay nominee, or it could land BP and screenplay, similar to Women Talking a few years ago (another MGM/Orion film, but that did land a SAG cast nomination). Sing Sing has a sure bet in Best Actor for Colman Domingo, a likely/possible screenplay spot and Gotham winner and first-time actor Clarence Maclin on the cusp in Supporting Actor. Had the film earned a SAG cast nomination it would be a much easier call. A Real Pain has a virtual acting winner lock in Kieran Culkin and competitive win in original screenplay.

A Real Pain feels like the easiest call for the #9 spot. For #10, I’m going with Nickel Boys, backed by respected Oscar-winning producers from Plan B (Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave) Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner.

For Best Director, going with the DGA five of Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) makes a lot of sense. It looks like an Oscar five. But the Academy’s directing branch and the DGA just don’t go 5/5, they carve their own paths. But we’re also looking at – barring a shocking inclusion of Denis Villeneuve – the first all first-timer lineup since 1997. Even if you think Mangold is the odd man out here, even in the face of the incredible guild run A Complete Unknown managed, his nearest replacements would still be among multiple first-timers, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light or Jon M. Chu for Wicked. I think we can nix Chu here, who would have made more sense as the DGA pick that misses Oscar. Ross and Kapadia both hit the DGA First-Time Director category but in obviously weak films in terms of other categories. That leaves the door open for Fargeat, who would join a still elite group of women nominated for Best Director at the Oscars. I can see the branch vibing with how far she goes with The Substance, but it’s also the very thing that could keep some of the more traditional voters at bay. I think it’s down to Mangold or Fargeat and as many times as I, we, have been burned by thinking that the directing branch will more consistently nominate women and then don’t, I’m going with her anyway, instincts be damned for a minute. But, if they nominate Mangold (who feels like a previous directing nominee), I won’t be surprised.

Here are my final 2025 Oscar nomination predictions for Best Picture and Best Director. See below for all 23 categories.

BEST PICTURE

BEST DIRECTOR

BEST ACTOR

BEST ACTRESS

SUPPORTING ACTOR

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

FILM EDITING

CINEMATOGRAPHY

PRODUCTION DESIGN

COSTUME DESIGN

ORIGINAL SCORE

ORIGINAL SONG

SOUND

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

VISUAL EFFECTS

ANIMATED FEATURE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

ANIMATED SHORT

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

LIVE ACTION SHORT