FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

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With the USC Scripter nominations not coming until January 22, the day before Oscar nominations, I don’t have them an adapted screenplay precursor for the first time. But, as with so many of these guild nominations, thoughtfulness in regards to the immediacy of attention about the raging fires in Los Angeles understandably preempted several groups, including the Oscars themselves, from their announcements.

The semi-surprise inclusion of September 5 on the PGA list certainly set some Oscar prognosticators into a flurry as to if they should rearrange their Best Picture predictions and indeed, it’s an eyebrow-raiser. But I’m thinking it will likely find itself here, in Original Screenplay (and/or possibly Film Editing), one of the most contentious categories for the 5th spot, with All We Imagine as Light, Challengers, and Hard Truths all vying.

The Oscars do love sole screenplay nominations and there are a handful of films that could fit that bill. Less so from the adapted side (unless Hit Man surprises), so if it happens it’s going to come from original.

As a quick reminder when looking at which precursors films have gathered this season that the WGA is a strict signatory guild and several frontrunners were not eligible there. See the list here:

Adapted: ConclaveEmilia PérezI’m Still HereInside Out 2The OutrunThe Room Next DoorSing SingThe Wild Robot.

Original: All We Imagine As LightThe BrutalistA Different ManDìdiHard TruthsHis Three DaughtersI Saw the TV GlowThe Seed of the Sacred FigSeptember 5The Substance.

Oscar nominations are now set to be announced on January 23, barring any further postponements. Here are my final 2025 Oscar nomination predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Conclave (Focus Features)
Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris)
BAFTA, CCA, GG
2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon)
BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG
3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead)
BAFTA, CCA, WGA
4. Sing Sing (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell)
BAFTA, CCA
5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald
BAFTA, WGA
6. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros)
Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert)
CCA, WGA
7. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox (based on the musical stage play with music and lyrics by Stephen Schwartz and the book by Winnie Holzman)
CCA, WGA
8. Hit Man (Netflix)
Richard Linklater, Glen Powell (based on “Hit Man” by Skip Hollandsworth)
WGA
9. I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics)
Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega (based on “I’m Still Here” by Marcelo Rubens Paiva)
Venice
10. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez)
EFA

Next up (alphabetical):

  • Gladiator II — David Scarpa, Peter Craig (based on characters by David Franzoni) (Paramount Pictures)
  • Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar)
    Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, Kelsey Mann (based on characters from the film “Inside Out”)
  • Nosferatu — Robert Eggers (based on “Nosferatu – Eine Symphonie des Grauens” by Wilhelm Murnau and “Dracula” by Bram Stoker) (Focus Features)
  • Queer — Justin Kuritzkes (based on the novel by William S. Burroughs) (A24)
  • The Wild Robot — Chris Sanders (based on the series by Peter Brown) (Universal Pictures, Dreamworks Animation)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
BAFTA, CCA, GG, Sundance, WGA
2. Anora (NEON)
Sean Baker
BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
3. The Brutalist (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
BAFTA, CCA, GG
4. The Substance (MUBI)
Coralie Fargeat
BAFTA, Cannes, CCA, GG, EFA
5. September 5 (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum
CCA
6. Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
Mike Leigh
7. Challengers (Amazon MGM)
Justin Kuritzkes
CCA, WGA
8. All We Imagine as Light (NEON)
Payal Kapadia
9. Kneecap (Sony Pictures Classics)
Rich Peppiatt, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, JJ Ó Dochartaigh
BAFTA
10. Civil War (A24)
Alex Garland
WGA

Next up (alphabetical):

  • Babygirl — Halina Reijn (A24)
  • Blitz — Steve McQueen (Apple Original Films)
  • His Three Daughters — Azazel Jacobs (Netflix)
  • The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)
  • Saturday Night — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman (Sony Pictures)
Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013. He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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