FINAL 2025 Oscar Predictions: FILM EDITING and CINEMATOGRAPHY

With the American Cinema Editors (ACE) not revealing their winners until nearly two weeks after the Oscars, their ability to be a proper precursor for the film editing Oscar is non-existent.

I’ve read rumblings about the possibility of Wicked winning here. Some think it can also win sound, and there is an historical connection between the two awards, which has seen many films take both while not needing to be real Best Picture contender like Ford v Ferrari, The Sound of Metal and Whiplash have done. I kind of get it but it feels like a stretch, with fellow musical Emilia Pérez arguably in a better position. What works in that beliefs favor is that until Everything Everywhere All at Once, the last time a film won editing without a corresponding sound nomination was 2006’s The Departed, which was also the Best Picture winner.

With no big action movie to pull focus from a Best Picture nominee, which is almost impossible now in the expanded era (only 2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has managed it), common sense would say lean to a top 3 BP contender, which leaves us with Anora, Conclave or The Brutalist. Without an ACE nomination, The Brutalist prevailing here doesn’t seem realistic, either as a Best Picture winner or an also ran. That leaves Anora and Conclave, our presumptive top 2. Either would be non-traditional picks in this category and neither has a sound nomination, or cinematography for that matter. You know what has all three? Emiiliaaa…

Since the Best Picture expansion in 2009, film editing + Best Picture has actually only happened three times but, interestingly, for the last two years it’s been the case.

But let’s look at the ACE situation for a second and be a little predictive. In their split categories of drama and comedy we have Conclave vs Emilia Pérez in the former and Anora and Wicked in the latter. Why EP is in drama and Wicked is in comedy is its own mystery but that’s where they are. The ACE Eddies were set to take place on January 18 but, as was the case with several awards shows set to take place in January, the Los Angeles fires postponed them but what wasn’t postponed was the voting period. Winner voting ended on January 8, just one day after the fires began. That means that any possible blowback from the Karla Sofía Gascón controversy wouldn’t have impacted Emilia Pérez votes from changing. It’s very possible that on March 14 when the ACE Eddies finally happen, that’s the name that will be called. In the Anora vs Wicked battle at ACE, the latter certainly has more editing with cutting so many musical numbers together but Anora is no slouch; the entire central sequence of the film is a barrage of cuts and edits the film’s stars tussle and fight during the home invasion. There’s also this; the last time a film won PGA/DGA/WGA and lost ACE was 2014’s Birdman (all that ‘invisible’ editing looked cool but didn’t win over voters). Before that it was 2010’s The King’s Speech. The Social Network won ACE and BAFTA and ended up winning the Oscar. That’s good for Anora over Wicked. But also Conclave over Emilia Pérez. And we’re back to where we started.

So what does ALL of this mean? Let’s say for argument’s sake that the ACE winners are Conclave and Anora. As our top 2 films, despite not being traditional editing winners, it will likely fall to one of them. But will it be the Best Picture winner or the runner-up? Let’s add to the PGA/DGA/WGA stat above; no film has won the editing Oscar without being the Best Picture/Best Director winner and missing a sound nomination since 1985’s Witness. Individually, you can make cases for a lot of scenarios, but adding all of them together, my eyes see Anora.

Cinematography is where The Brutalist should be able to secure a trophy, having scored wins from British cinematographers and BAFTA. Resurrecting the VistaVision format has been a cornerstone of the conversation around the film. Even missing the ASC to Edward Lachman for Maria shouldn’t be much of a bump in the road but The Brutalist‘s virtual shutout of American guilds leading up to the Oscars is certainly not a small thing.

Here are my final Oscar winner predictions in Film Editing and Cinematography for the 97th Academy Awards.

FILM EDITING

CINEMATOGRAPHY