Forum Oscar Poll Results: October 2015 – Joy Surges to #1 in Best Picture, Room Debuts

The results for the October Forum Oscar Polls are in and Joy has vaulted over Carol to land at #1 for the month. Not that Carol is crying, the film is at #2 and just a few votes behind in a very tough battle. Right behind Carol though is an even closer competitor, Spotlight. The Open Road film moves up from #6 to #3 and is just a single point behind The Weinstein Company‘s number one Oscar player. It supplants Netflix’s Beasts of No Nation which, after its dreadful box office and good but not great reviews, falls all the way out of the top 10 after its #5 peak last month.

The entire top 5 in Best Picture are all within throwing distance of each other in this very close race. Even as The Revenant and Steve Jobs fall a bit to make way for Spotlight, Bridge of Spies (which bounces back from outside the top 10) and Room (which debuts in the top 10 this month), they still hold strong as major players. Now, for Steve Jobs, it could appear that the level of negative stories written about its box office failure have seemingly undone its Oscar chances outside of acting and screenplay categories. Right now the forums are being less reactionary than even our own Gold Rush Gang, which could prove to be the more level-headed response to the film but time will tell.

As always, since these results come directly from votes with the forum community of AwardsWatch, you can vote. Don’t think Joy or Carol are getting in? Think Mad Max: Fury Road or The Big Short have a better shot? Be heard. Bookmark this page and vote every month!

BEST PICTURE
01. Joy (93%; 159 votes)
02. Carol (89%; 152 votes)
03. Spotlight (88%; 151 votes)
04. The Revenant (87%; 149 votes)
05. Steve Jobs (86%; 147 votes)
06. Bridge of Spies (70%; 120 votes)
07. Room (63%; 107 votes)
08. Inside Out (58%; 99 votes)
09. The Hateful Eight (57%; 98 votes)
10. Brooklyn (36%; 62 votes)

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2015’s Best Director winner, Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), still holds onto the #1 position with The Revenant but David O. Russell (Joy) is nipping at his heels just two points behind. The fall of Beasts of No Nation hits Cary Fukunaga who, like his film in Best Picture, drops out of the top 10 entirely after a month of top 5 glory. Moving up are Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) and two-time Best Director Oscar winner Steven Spielberg. Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs) tumbles out of the top 5, the first casualty of his film’s box office. We also see George Miller’s stock rise for Mad Max: Fury Road and two directors debut on this month’s list: Lenny Abrahamson (Room) and Ridley Scott (The Martian).

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Alejandro González Iñárritu — The Revenant (88%; 113 votes)
02. David O. Russell — Joy (87%; 111 votes)
03. Todd Haynes — Carol (79%; 101 votes)
04. Tom McCarthy — Spotlight (70%; 90 votes)
05. Steven Spielberg — Bridge of Spies (41%; 53 votes)

06. Danny Boyle — Steve Jobs (28%; 36 votes)
07. Quentin Tarantino — The Hateful Eight (27%; 35 votes)
08. George Miller — Mad Max: Fury Road (24%; 31 votes)
09. László Nemes — Son of Saul (16%; 21 votes)
10. Lenny Abrahamson — Room (9%; 12 votes)
10. Ridley Scott — The Martian (9%; 12 votes)

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Despite the storm of failure around Steve Jobs, its star, Michael Fassbender, actually breaks last month’s tie with Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) to secure the pole position for himself. Granted, it’s only by two points but it’s quite a feat considering he could have easily been pushed down the list by (over) reactionary voting. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) and Michael Caine (Youth) sit complacently at #3 and #4 again, like placeholders. Matt Damon (The Martian) makes a huge debut at #5 this month and in doing so displaces Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation). Will Smith (Concussion) is the only  debut this month as Mark Ruffalo’s lands in supporting (via Open Road‘s decision to push all actors in that category). Curiously missing is Steve Carell in The Big Short. Chances are he’s suffering from a bit of category placement-itis and just doesn’t have enough votes in lead or supporting to stake a claim in either place. Taking a peek at next month’s early results (it’s only been a day) he’s getting votes in lead but not enough to give him a top 5 debut.

BEST ACTOR
01. Michael Fassbender — Steve Jobs (97%; 162 votes)
02. Leonardo DiCaprio — The Revenant (96%; 160 votes)
03. Eddie Redmayne — The Danish Girl (82%; 137 votes)
04. Michael Caine — Youth (50%; 83 votes)
05. Matt Damon — The Martian (49%; 82 votes)

06. Tom Hanks — Bridge of Spies (26%; 44 votes)
07. Johnny Depp — Black Mass (20%; 33 votes)
08. Ian McKellen — Mr. Holmes (17%; 29 votes)
08. Will Smith — Concussion (17%; 29 votes)
10. Géza Röhrig — Son of Saul (15%; 25 votes)

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Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) holds onto the number one slot yet again but Cate Blanchett (Carol) is getting very close, just three points behind (versus eight last month). But this month is all about Brie Larson in Room. She jumps from #6 and 116 votes last month up to #3 and a whopping 192 votes, spitting distance of the top spot. Jane Fonda recently said that Larson is the actress she most thinks resembles herself at that time, no small compliment. Larson and her film made huge strides this month and it’s very likely that we’re looking at a ‘Joy vs. Joy’ for Best Actress this year.

Elsewhere, Carey Mulligan (Suffragette) drops out of the top five as her film flops at the box office and some bad press and a perceived lack of passion for the film and her performance sink her chances by the week. Brooklyn‘s Saiorse Ronan is still in it and really made the rounds of the campaign this last month. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) holds onto #5 and when you look at the point difference between #5 and #6 it’s very likely that we’re looking at the Best Actress top 5 already.

BEST ACTRESS
01. Jennifer Lawrence — Joy (91%; 200 votes)
02. Cate Blanchett — Carol (90%; 197 votes)
03. Brie Larson — Room (88%; 192 votes)
04. Saoirse Ronan — Brooklyn (77%; 169 votes)
05. Charlotte Rampling — 45 Years (61%; 133 votes)

06. Carey Mulligan — Suffragette (30%; 65 votes)
07. Lily Tomlin — Grandma (17%; 38 votes)
08. Rooney Mara — Carol (5%; 10 votes)
09. Cate Blanchett– Truth (4%; 8 votes)
09. Maggie Smith — The Lady in the Van (4%; 8 votes)

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Idris Elba is the only one to survive the slaughter of Beasts of No Nation even as he slips from #1 to #3. Robert De Niro (Joy) commands the top spot now. Michael Keaton (Spotlight) seems secure for a classic ‘afterglow’ nomination and his co-star Mark Ruffalo, also a previous nominee, just barely secures a spot in the top five. But will two supporting actors from the same film make it in? It hasn’t happened since 1991’s Bugsy when Ben Kingsley and Harvey Keitel did but it’s surely possible. Speaking of Keitel, he continues to fall this year, now all the way to #10. The rise of Bridge of Spies has put Emmy and Tony winner Mark Rylance in a strong position for a nomination as The Revenant‘s Tom Hardy and The Hateful Eight‘s Samuel L. Jackson falter. In Jackson’s case there’s the possibility he’ll be run as lead but that’s still unclear. For Hardy, who knows? Lack of impact maybe. If Elba continues to fall Hardy could return. Or, 9-year old Jacob Tremblay (Room) could take a spot at the table. He continues to rise as his film does and if he’s nominated he’ll be the youngest in this category since Justin Henry in 1979’s Kramer vs. Kramer.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Robert De Niro — Joy (78%; 113 votes)
02. Michael Keaton — Spotlight (74%; 107 votes)
03. Idris Elba — Beasts of No Nation (58%; 84 votes)
04. Mark Rylance — Bridge of Spies (56%; 80 votes)
05. Mark Ruffalo — Spotlight (55%; 79 votes)

06. Tom Hardy — The Revenant (53%; 77 votes)
07. Jacob Tremblay — Room (31%; 44 votes)
08. Samuel L. Jackson — The Hateful Eight (29%; 42 votes)
09. Benicio Del Toro — Sicario (19%; 27 votes)
10. Harvey Keitel — Youth (6%; 9 votes)

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Rooney Mara (Carol) is unstoppable. Never not #1 since voting started. She’s even increased her lead over Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) this month. Winslet though has remained a strong player for her film but this category is starting to look like Best Actress, locked. Same five ladies and in the same spots as last month. Now, Mara, Winslet and Vikander (The Danish Girl) are all really unmovable. There isn’t much of a narrative that leads to one of them being snubbed. Diane Ladd in Joy however (and to a lesser extent, Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight) is really the question mark here. The response back from the screenings was that Ladd had very little screen time, despite her impact in those scenes. Her co-star, Isabella Rossellini (who sees a huge jump this month), has a ‘better’ role and more time. She’s never been nominated but her mother is one of the most rewarded actresses in Oscar history. Could it be her time? Speaking of Oscar-winning actresses, don’t count out Jane Fonda and her scene-stealing cameo in Youth. She’s been everywhere this season and she wants this nomination. She hasn’t gotten Oscar attention in nearly 30 years, since 1986’s The Morning After.  That could all change come January.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Rooney Mara — Carol (93%; 162 votes)
02. Kate Winslet — Steve Jobs (89%; 155 votes)
03. Alicia Vikander — The Danish Girl (74%; 128 votes)
04. Jennifer Jason Leigh — The Hateful Eight (66%; 115 votes)
05. Diane Ladd — Joy (51%; 88 votes)

06. Jane Fonda — Youth (34%; 59 votes)
07. Isabella Rossellini — Joy (23%; 40 votes)
08. Joan Allen — Room (17%; 29 votes)
09. Rachel McAdams — Spotlight (11%; 20 votes)
10. Julia Roberts — Secret in Their Eyes (6%; 11 votes)

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The screenplay categories are really taking shape and starting to look pretty close to wrapped up. There’s definitely more room to play in Adapted but right now the top five of Carol, Steve Jobs, Room, Brooklyn and The Revenant feel solid. But right below that are three that could easily spoil, especially if The Revenant becomes largely a tech show or if Room ends up being a Best Actress race and that’s it. Oscar winner Charlie Kaufman’s puppet drama Anomalisa is close to entering the top 5 but look out for The Big Short to potentially make a major play.

Over in Original Screenplay I would be very surprised to see anything but this top 5 of Spotlight, Joy, Inside Out, The Hateful Eight and Bridge of Spies end up as our Oscar nominees. The Gold Rush Gang agrees, even on the order of nomination likelihood so you know something’s right there. Just look at the vote disparity between Bridge of Spies at #5 (70) vs Son of Saul at #6 (11). Earlier in the summer it looked Amy Schumer’s Trainwreck might be able to crash the race a la Bridesmaids but that seems unlikely now.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Carol (98%; 93 votes)
02. Steve Jobs (93%; 88 votes)
03. Room (84%; 80 votes)
04. Brooklyn (63%; 60 votes)
05. The Revenant (52%; 49 votes)

06. Anomalisa (48%; 46 votes)
07. The Martian (17%; 16 votes)
08. The Big Short (12%; 11 votes)
09. Beasts of No Nation (9%; 9 votes)
10. The Danish Girl (6%; 6 votes)

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. Spotlight (98%; 80 votes)
02. Joy (96%; 79 votes)
03. Inside Out (91%; 75 votes)
03. The Hateful Eight (91%; 75 votes)
05. Bridge of Spies (85%; 70 votes)

06. Son of Saul (13%; 11 votes)
07. Youth (10%; 8 votes)
08. Trainwreck (4%; 3 votes)
09. Other (2%; 2 votes)