Tue. Nov 12th, 2019

Guild Preview and Predictions: Writers, Costumers, Makeup and Sound Pack Busy Weekend

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As we enter the final lap of what always seems like a non-stop campaign to Oscar night, the final guilds of the season will be announcing their winners over the next few days. The Cinema Audio Society (CAS), the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (MUAH), the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE), the Writers Guild (WGA) and the Costume Designers Guild (CDG) will all give us that last boost to our final Oscar predictions next week.

LISTEN – Oscar Podcast #50: Post-BAFTA Bumps, Guild Talk and Near Final Oscar Predictions

Here is a preview and predictions for these upcoming guilds with the focus on those films and categories that are Oscar-correlated.

Cinema Audio Society (CAS)
Saturday, February 18th

Only two nominees here are nominated for the Sound Mixing Oscar (Hacksaw Ridge and La La Land) so we’ll knock out the other three here. While there isn’t a magical correlation between CAS and the Oscar, musicals like Les Misérables and Dreamgirls won here against action and war films and there’s no reason to think that La La Land, with its box office and huge Oscar nomination haul will be any different. It should breeze through here but if there was going to be an upset it would come from Hacksaw Ridge. Last year, The Revenant won CAS but Mad Max: Fury Road won the Oscar.

MOTION PICTURE – LIVE ACTION
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land (predicted winner)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

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Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (MUAH)
Sunday, February 19th

There are five categories with the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild but one for the Oscar. Looking at the three Oscar nominees we have (A Man Called Ove, Star Trek Beyond and Suicide Squad) only the latter two are represented here and they only face off in one category, Special Makeup Effects. Last year, Mad Max: Fury Road won that category and then the Oscar. In the contemporary categories, we could see a split between La La Land and Nocturnal Animals.

FEATURE-LENGTH MOTION PICTURE – BEST CONTEMPORARY MAKE-UP

CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
LA LA LAND (predicted winner)
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
ZOOLANDER 2

FEATURE-LENGTH MOTION PICTURE – BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIR STYLING

LA LA LAND
NOCTURNAL ANIMALS (predicted winner)
SULLY
THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN
ZOOLANDER 2

FEATURE-LENGTH MOTION PICTURE – BEST PERIOD AND/OR CHARACTER MAKE-UP

DOCTOR STRANGE
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
HAIL, CAESAR!
LOVING
SUICIDE SQUAD (predicted winner)

FEATURE-LENGTH MOTION PICTURE – BEST PERIOD AND/OR CHARACTER HAIR STYLING

FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS (predicted winner)
HAIL, CAESAR!
JACKIE
LOVING

FEATURE-LENGTH MOTION PICTURE – BEST SPECIAL MAKE-UP EFFECTS

DEADPOOL
DOCTOR STRANGE
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
STAR TREK BEYOND (predicted winner)
SUICIDE SQUAD

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Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild (MPSE)
Sunday, February 19th

Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge are both up for all eligible categories here as well as Oscar-nominated in Sound Editing. The Oscar-nominated Sully and Deepwater Horizon also earned one nomination apiece here. For Dialogue and ADR, the MPSE has a wide range of genre types winning here from drama (A Beautiful Mind) to action and war films (Unbroken, Letters from Iwo Jima) but rarely sci-fi. Same goes for Effects/Foley. Hacksaw Ridge could be poised to take both of these. For Music, it’s a bit trickier as the MSPE has awarded dramas with strong musical scores (American Beauty and The English Patient) to massive sci-fi blockbusters (Avatar) but also Mel Gibson’s last two films (Apocalypto and The Passion of the Christ). But, no film has won all three so picked Hacksaw Ridge for this as well seems like a risky bet. It’s hard to think Arrival will go home empty-handed so there’s likely a place for it here. Last year’s winners were Bridge of Spies (Dialogue/ADR), Mad Max: Fury Road (Effects/Foley) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Music). The Oscars have a single Sound Editing category and Mad Max: Fury Road won. La La Land scored a sole nomination in the Musical section but did land a surprise Oscar nomination so it’s a lock here.

FEATURE – ENGLISH LANGUAGE – DIALOGUE/ADR

Arrival (predicted winner)
Deadpool
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
Lion
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

FEATURE – ENGLISH LANGUAGE – EFFECTS/FOLEY

Arrival
Captain America: Civil War
Deadpool
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge (predicted winner)
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

FEATURE – MUSIC

Arrival
Doctor Strange
Don’t Breathe
Hacksaw Ridge (predicted winner)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Star Trek Beyond
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Warcraft: The Beginning

FEATURE – MUSICAL

Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land (predicted winner)
Moana
Sing Street
Trolls

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Writers Guild of America (WGA)
Sunday, February 19th

A complicated prediction, to be sure. Two films in the Original Screenplay category, Loving and Moonlight, were deemed Adapted by the Academy (where the latter was nominated) so would the WGA go out of its way to thumb its nose and reward Moonlight here? It doesn’t seem likely so the fight should be between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea as it is at the Oscars. It’s a real tough call. Kenneth Lonergan has won here before (for You Can Count On Me) and it’s as writer-ly a script as you can get. La La Land seems like an easy frontrunner choice but it’s not impenetrable when it comes to the guilds; it’s already lost the ASC and wasn’t even nominated for SAG. The WGA could easily go for Manchester here and that’s what I’m predicting. That said, Moonlight will definitely pull some votes from this group and it could be Manchester that suffers, opening La La Land‘s Damien Chazelle (a previous WGA nominee for Whiplash) up to a win.

With Moonlight not nominated in Adapted here and Lion not eligible, that makes Arrival a much easier choice. Going from a short story to a full-length feature (like Brokeback Mountain) will probably be too much to resist for the group. If Nocturnal Animals had been Oscar-nominated it might have been a threat there but it’s not. The closest rival is probably Hidden Figures, a film that has gained the most since its release in terms of box office and attention and guild wins (it has those SAG and ADG wins) and is the only nominated screenplay that’s written or co-written by a woman.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water, Written by Taylor Sheridan
La La Land, Written by Damien Chazelle
Loving, Written by Jeff Nichols
Manchester by the Sea, Written by Kenneth Lonergan (predicted winner)
Moonlight, Written by Barry Jenkins, Story by Tarell McCraney

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival, Screenplay by Eric Heisserer; Based on the Story “Story of Your Life” by Ted Chiang (predicted winner)
Deadpool, Written by Rhett Reese & Paul Wernick; Based on the X-Men Comic Books
Fences, Screenplay by August Wilson; Based on his Play
Hidden Figures, Screenplay by Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi; Based on the Book by Margot Lee Shetterly
Nocturnal Animals, Screenplay by Tom Ford; Based on the Novel Tony and Susan by Austin Wright

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Costume Designers Guild (CDG)
Tuesday, February 21st

Four of the five Oscar-nominated films in Costume Design are represented by the Costume Designers Guild in one of its three categories. Only Allied did not show up here. For Contemporary it would be a shock for La La Land to lose. In Period, we have two Oscar nominees: Florence Foster Jenkins and Jackie. Jackie has won the Critics Choice and BAFTA and the iconic pink Chanel suit and pillbox hat are going to be impossible to resist. In Fantasy Film is where we find our fourth Oscar nominee, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Coming from multi-Oscar and CDG winner Colleen Atwood, it should be a shoe-in to win.

EXCELLENCE IN CONTEMPORARY FILM

ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS: THE MOVIE
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
LA LA LAND (predicted winner)
LION
NOCTURNAL ANIMALS

EXCELLENCE IN PERIOD FILM

THE DRESSMAKER
FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
HAIL, CAESAR!
HIDDEN FIGURES
JACKIE (predicted winner)

EXCELLENCE IN FANTASY FILM

DOCTOR STRANGE
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM (predicted winner)
KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS
MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY

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