Predictions for 2024 National Board of Review (NBR) and AFI’s Top 10

Both the National Board of Review (NBR) and AFI reveal their top 10 films of the year and there is often significant crossover between the two lists, which themselves look very similar to our eventual Producers Guild (PGA) nominations.

Where things can get sticky with the NBR is their separation of their main Top 10 films with their Top 10 Independent Films list. Year to year there isn’t much of a hard line definition of what qualifies a film to be on one or the other (they can’t be on both) and the main list will always contain more than a few films that could be on either. This year has Anora, The Brutalist, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain and Sing Sing among the films that are likely to show up but on which list? History favors the the main. The main list is seen as the more prestigious of the two (there’s also a top 5 international list and top 5 documentary list) and in recent years they’ve been using the independent list for smaller films; last year picking All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt, All of Us Strangers and Scrapper among their titles.

For AFI, the American Film Institute, you won’t see international titles like Emilia Pérez or All We Imagine as Light but if it’s a film that would be on their list without the constraints of eligibility, you’ll find it in their ‘Special Mention’ list. We’ve seen everything from The King’s Speech to Belfast to The Banshees of Inisherin, all future Oscar winners or nominees, show up there.

Here are my predictions for the National Board of Review (announcing December 4) and the AFI Top 10 list (announcing December 5).

National Board of Review (NBR)

Best Film
Conclave

Top 10 Films (alphabetical)
Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Wicked Part 1

Alts: Juror #2, The Piano Lesson, The Wild Robot

Top 10 Independent Films (alphabetical)
Dìdi
A Different Man
Ghostlight
Good One
His Three Daughters
I Saw the TV Glow
Love Lies Bleeding
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Thelma

Alts: Between the Temples, His Three Daughters, Janet Planet

Best Director
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Alt: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Alt: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Best Actress
Demi Moore, The Substance
Alt: Mikey Madison, Anora

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Alt: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Alt: Ariana Grande, Wicked

Best Breakthrough Performance
Yura Borisnov, Anora
Alt: Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Perez

Best Ensemble Cast
Saturday Night
Alt: The Piano Lesson

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography
The Brutalist
Alt: Challengers

Outstanding Achievement in Stunt Artistry
Gladiator II
Alt: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Directorial Debut
Sean Wang, Dìdi
Alt: Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Best Original Screenplay
A Real Pain
Alt: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Alt: Sing Sing

Best Foreign Language Film
I’m Still Here
Alt: Emilia Pérez

Best Documentary
Will & Harper
Alt: Sugarcane

Best Animated Feature
The Wild Robot
Alt: Inside Out 2

AFI Top 10 (alphabetical)

Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Wicked Part 1

Alts: The Substance, The Wild Robot

Special Mention: Emilia Pérez or All We Imagine as Light