Screen Actors Guild (SAG) predictions – Motion Picture: Can ‘Everything Everywhere’ rebound from BAFTA?

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The BAFTAs last weekend made for a very interesting scenario going into SAG on Sunday. Not only was BAFTA first but SAG voting was still going on, is still going on, giving late voters a possible nudge in someone’s direction. But in which? To Butler, Keoghan and Condon to validate their choices? Or to Farrell, Fraser, Quan or Bassett help secure what now might feel like open races?

The most remarkable thing about this year’s SAG nominations are that, for the first time ever, two films – The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once – received five nominations: four individual acting nods and one for their casts. Only three other films have ever achieved that: 1998’s Shakespeare in Love, 2002’s Chicago and 2008’s Doubt. When you dig into each of those titles you’ll find that all three won their nominations for Female Actor in a Lead Role and two went on to win the Oscar as well (sorry, Zellweger) and Best Picture. That puts Michelle Yeoh in a unique position as the only nominee in that category of the two films leading this year. It’s also interesting to see the potential similarities in the trajectory of Gwyneth Paltrow and Yeoh: both won the Globe for Musical or Comedy then both lost BAFTA to…Cate Blanchett. Further down the rabbit hole we go. What makes the lead actress category fascinating, to me at least, is that it’s the only acting category which has the chance to sweep all precursors this season, a bit of a rarity, and it wouldn’t be the first time Blanchett has done that, in this category no less.

EEAAO‘s SAG nominations mirror Doubt‘s exactly: Cast, Female Actor in a Leading Role, Male Actor in a Supporting Role and two in Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Banshees is unique in its nomination breakdown among all five films who have earned this many nods, with its dual Male Actor in a Supporting Role nominations. What’s never happened, yet, is a film earning five SAG noms and going home empty-handed. It’s a real possibility this weekend unless BAFTA truly shifted the core of the awards race, which it certainly has done before.

It’s worth noting that not since 2004’s Sideways has the SAG Cast award gone to a film with just four credited actors (which is a strict guild matter individual title card credits). That’s a case for The Banshees of Inisherin missing all individual acting awards and winning the top one, but it would be a rare get. All other winners, before and after Sideways, have at least had six since the inception of the award in 1995. The Full Monty, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and Parasite are the only winners not to be nominated in any other category. This year, Babylon and Women Talking are only nominated in Cast.

In the individual acting categories we have some real races thanks to Critics’ Choice, the Globes and BAFTA landing on more than one contender. Austin Butler’s BAFTA win over Colin Farrell (and, to a lesser extent, Brendan Fraser) positions him very well for SAG as a frontrunner but the pull for Fraser’s comeback, which early in the season was seen as unbeatable, could be enough to push him over. This is a close race for SAG.

Cate Blanchett is the only returning Oscar-winning actor this season and after securing Critics’ Choice, the Globe and BAFTA and, as mentioned above, is the only nominated actor this season that can sweep, which would be her second time doing so in this category after 2013’s Blue Jasmine. Can Michelle Yeoh turn the narrative back around in her favor with a win here? Like in actor, I think this is a very close race and a win here for Yeoh will make it even closer. We also have three examples of films that have won the cast award plus a supporting win have also won this category: 2002’s Chicago, 2008’s The Help and 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. While it’s a relatively small sample size, if you’re predicting EEAAO for Cast and Ke Huy Quan (or Jamie Lee Curtis/Stephanie Hsu for, that matter) there is evidence for Yeoh to triumph and she’s the only lead actress in her category with a corresponding cast nomination as well as in a film with other cast members individually nominated.

Speaking of narrative, and to the point above, Ke Huy Quan’s triumphant return got him Critics’ Choice and the Globe but he stumbled at BAFTA, who favored Barry Keoghan in an upset. I don’t anticipate that happening at SAG but there is definitely a minor crack in this race now that opens the door ever so slightly.

Also a BAFTA winner, Kerry Condon snatched continued victory from Angela Bassett (I mean, she did the thing!) but benefitting her at SAG is the awards didn’t exist yet when she was Oscar-nominated for Best Actress for 1993’s What’s Love Got To Do With It? (they started one year later) and while she is already a SAG winner as a part of the cast of 2018’s Black Panther, this is the first opportunity to reward the veteran star by her union peers.

SAG, Oscar and Emmy-nominated actor Andrew Garfield will present the 58th SAG Life Achievement Award to SAG Award and Oscar-winning actress Sally Field. He previously worked with Field in The Amazing Spider-Man films.

Emily Blunt (The English), Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy), Don Cheadle (White Noise), Caleb McLaughlin (Stranger Things), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Ashley Park (Emily in Paris), Jason Bateman (Ozark), Jeff Bridges (The Old Man), Jenna Ortega (Wednesday), Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus), Adam Scott (Severance) and Zendaya (Euphoria), along with SAG-AFTRA President Fran Drescher, Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Eugene Levy (The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy), and Amy Poehler (Restless Leg Tour) will be among the presenters at the 29th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. The ceremony will be broadcast live on Netflix’s YouTube channel, YouTube.com/Netflix, Sunday, February 26 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT from the Fairmont Century Plaza in Los Angeles. 

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Predicted winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Spoiler: The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

Other nominees: Babylon (Paramount Pictures), The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures), Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted winner: Austin Butler as Elvis – Elvis (Warner Bros)
Spoiler: Brendan Fraser as Charlie – The Whale (A24)

Other nominees: Colin Farrell as Pádraic Súilleabháin – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures), Bill Nighy as Williams – Living (Sony Pictures Classics), Adam Sandler as Stanley Sugerman – Hustle (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted winner: Michelle Yeoh as Evelyn Wang – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Spoiler: Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tár – TÁR (Focus Features)

Other nominees: Viola Davis as Nanisca – The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictres), Ana de Armas as Norma Jean – Blonde (Netflix), Danielle Deadwyler as Mamie Till-Mobley – Till (UAR/Orion
Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Predicted winner: Ke Huy Quan as Waymond Wang – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Spoiler: Barry Keoghan as Dominic Kearney – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

Other nominees: Paul Dano as Burt Fabelman – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures), Brendan Gleeson as Colm Doherty – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures), Eddie Redmayne as Charlie Cullen – The Good Nurse (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Predicted winner: Angela Bassett as Queen Ramonda – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
Spoiler: Kerry Condon as Siobhán Súilleabháin – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

Other nominees: Hong Chau as Liz – The Whale (A24), Jamie Lee Curtis as Deidre Beaubeirdra – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24), Stephanie Hsu as Joy Wang/Jobu Topaki – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Predicted winner: Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Spoiler: The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures)

Other nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios), The Batman (Warner Bros), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)