2018 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (May) – Wonderstruck is new #1, Get Out debuts
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Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit, despite debuting a poster and first trailer, has been dethroned this month by the Todd Haynes Cannes entry Wonderstruck. It’s not just a simple move from last month’s #3 to #1 for the film, it also marks a huge jump in points, from 78 to 90. If the film wins any major prizes at Cannes this month, watch for that number to grow. The Amazon film doesn’t have a release date yet and October and November are getting pretty booked up so, tick tock.
Detroit, despite being bumped to #2, only loses three points in the process from last month and remains a very strong contender. The trailer was hit with some backlash on Twitter for its lack of depiction of black females and the title was also met with resistance for being to broad since the film is depicting a single period (the Detroit riots of summer 1967).
Steven Spielberg’s Pentagon Papers Project (previously, and very briefly, titled The Post) moves up from its 64-point #4 debut to a very strong 75 points at #3 this month.
The big loser this month, and by a substantial margin, is Alexander Payne’s Downsizing. Last month it sat comfortably at #2 and 83 points. Then that disastrous test screening happened and this month it plummets to #10 and a measly 18 points. Although it’s still very early in the year it’s hard to tell if the movie will be able to recover from that screening but again, it’s only May 1st and the film has a December 22nd release date, giving plenty of time to reshoot and reassemble.
Elsewhere there is quite a bit of change in the top 10. Nearly every other film in the top 10 earned points and placement. That’s a lot of green for Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Lean on Pete, Inner City and Call Me By Your Name. Even Mudbound, which falls one spot, earned more points this month than last. This makes for a lot of red just outside the top 10 but again, point totals are vital to look at. Blade Runner 2049 may have dropped from #10 to #11 but it’s 9 points the richer.
The blockbuster Get Out is the month’s sole debut. It lands at #16.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for May from the Gold Rush Gang.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
|
BEST PICTURE
|
ERIK
ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE
|
GREG HOWARD
|
EVAN
KOST |
JASON OSIASON
|
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ
|
RICHARD
ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT
|
MATT DINN
|
TOTAL
POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wonderstruck (Amazon) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 90 |
| 2 | Detroit (Annapurna – 8/4) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 80 |
| 3 | Untitled Steven Spielberg Pentagon Papers Project (20th Century Fox – 12/22) | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 75 |
| 4 | Darkest Hour (Focus Features – 11/24) | 6 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 68 |
| 5 | Dunkirk (Warner Bros – 7/21) | 9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 46 |
| 6 | Lean on Pete (A24) | 7 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Inner City (Sony) (possibly 2018) | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 32 | |||||
| 8 | Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics – 11/24) | 7 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 24 | ||||
| 9 | Mudbound (Netflix) | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 23 | |||||
| 10 | Downsizing (Paramount – 12/22) | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 18 | |||||
| 11 | Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros – 10/6) | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | |||||||
| 12 | Suburbicon (Paramount 11/3) | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | ||||||
| 13 | mother! (Paramount – 10/13) | 6 | 7 | 9 | ||||||||
| 14 | Last Flag Flying (Amazon) | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | |||||||
| 15 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight – 10/13) | 9 | 10 | 10 | 4 | |||||||
| 16 | Current War, The (The Weinstein Company – 12/22) | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 16 | Get Out (Universal – 2/24) | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 16 | Greatest Showman, The (20th Century Fox – 12/25) | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 16 | Happy End (Sony Pictures Classics) | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Aftermath, The (Fox Searchlight) | ||||||||||||
| Beguiled, The (Focus Features – 6/23) | ||||||||||||
| Breathe (Bleecker Street – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Disobedience (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Glass Castle, The (Lionsgate) | ||||||||||||
| Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight – 11/10) | ||||||||||||
| Hostiles (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Killing of a Sacred Deer, The (A24 – 11/3) | ||||||||||||
| Kings (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Leisure Seeker, The (Sony Pictures Classics) | ||||||||||||
| Lost City of Z (Amazon – 4/14) | ||||||||||||
| Marshall (Open Road Films – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Mary Magdalene (The Weinstein Company – 11/24) | ||||||||||||
| Molly’s Game (STX Entertainment) | ||||||||||||
| Mountain Between Us, The (20th Century Fox – 10/20) | ||||||||||||
| Murder on the Orient Express (20th Century Fox – 11/10) | ||||||||||||
| Shape of Water, The (Fox Searchlight – 12/8) | ||||||||||||
| Snowman, The (Universal – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Stronger (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions – 9/22) | ||||||||||||
| Thank You For Your Service (Universal – 10/27) | ||||||||||||
| Under the Silver Lake (A24) | ||||||||||||
| Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Fashion Project (Focus Features – 12/25) | ||||||||||||
| Untouchable (The Weinstein Company) | ||||||||||||
| Victoria and Abdul (Focus Features – 9/22) | ||||||||||||
| Wind River (The Weinstein Company – 8/4) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder Wheel (Amazon) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder (Lionsgate – 11/17) |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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