2016 Emmy Predictions: Drama Lead and Supporting Acting (June)

Erik Anderson June 21, 2016

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In the Drama acting categories you’ll find broad support in Lead Actor for Bobby Cannavale (Vinyl), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) and Kevin Spacey (House of Cards), all of whom receive nomination predictions from all from The Emmy Experts. From there it gets tricky as Paul Giamatti (Billions), Louis C.K. (Horace and Pete) and Matthew Rhys (The Americans) fight for the last two spots. My prediction of Matthew Rhys is a tenuous and risky one, to be sure. I’m gambling that last year’s Writing nomination for The Americans wasn’t a fluke and that this year we’ll see the show come into its own at the Emmys. With Horace and Pete it’s going to be tough to get both lead actors in but that’s exactly what Nicole and Jonathan are predicting and C.K. and Buscemi are no strangers to The Television Academy; C.K. is a six-time Emmy winner and Buscemi is a six-time Emmy nominee.

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Things look pretty locked up in Lead Actress with Claire Danes (Homeland), last year’s winner Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder), Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), Taraji P. Henson (Empire) and Robin Wright (House of Cards) being predicted by all Emmy Experts. Previous winner here Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife) has four of the five votes necessary for a lock with Jonathan the hold-out. He’s picking Tatiana Maslany, who earned her first nomination in this category for Orphan Black, to be nominated once again. This level of closeness in predictions within the group is one of two things; either we’re really zeroed in on this category (and at AW, we’re pretty locked in on actress categories) or we’re in for a surprise next month. Could it be in the form of Keri Russell (The Americans) or Shiri Appleby (UnREAL) or a first-time nomination for Eva Green (Penny Dreadful) or possibly the return of Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel)? Right now, Margulies and Henson feel the most vulnerable. Margulies, although a previous winner here, has been snubbed before and Henson’s show took a significant dip in ratings and buzz in its second season and its first was not an Emmy favorite to begin with.

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Another category where four of the six possible nominees receive prediction votes from all Emmy Experts. 34-time Emmy nominee Alan Alda (Horace and Pete), Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul), Jim Carter (Downton Abbey) and Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) are seem as in as they could be. Then we have a toss up of Alan Cumming (The Good Wife), Michael McKean (Better Call Saul), Christian Slater (Mr. Robot), and single votes for Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) and Ray Romano (Vinyl). Supporting Actor in a Drama Series is not afraid of double nominees from the same show so there is certainly potential for Game of Thrones or Better Call Saul to pull that off (BCS‘s predecessor Breaking Bad did it more than once). Both Harington and McKean had stellar seasons in which they were highlighted and centered on.

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Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black) is as locked in this category as anyone could be. Previous winner, recent SAG winner (in Lead) and the only actress to survive since the show’s inception. Last year’s nominees here like Christine Baranski (The Good Wife), Lena Headey (Game of Thrones), Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) and Joanne Froggat (Downton Abbey) have support and then there’s the possible return of previous winner Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) after being snubbed last year. 13-time Emmy nominee (and four-time winner) Edie Falco (Horace and Pete) is a mortal lock too. But two newcomers appear; Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) and Alison Wright (The Americans) are strong possibilities. But then, Margo Martindale (The Good Wife) could swoop in and ruin both of their chances.

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.