2016 Gotham Awards Winner Predictions

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The 2016 IFP Gotham Independent Film Awards are tomorrow and I have my predictions on what and who I think will win. Manchester by the Sea is the nomination leader going into the awards tomorrow with four, including two acting mentions (for Casey Affleck in Best Actor and Lucas Hedges for Breakthrough Actor). I’m predicting the film to take both of those acting awards and screenplay but Moonlight to (slightly) upset by taking Best Feature. Last year’s winner here included was the Best Picture Oscar winner (Spotlight) but that doesn’t necessarily represent the Gotham Awards as a major precursor.

This year’s Best Actress category is chockful of very likely Oscar Best Actress contenders including Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie) and Isabelle Huppert (Elle). Kate Beckinsale (Love and Friendship) is also nominated here and while she’s an outside shot at the Oscars she’s probably getting in at the Golden Globes and a win here would be a big boost for her. Conventional wisdom would tell me to predict Portman but just last year the non-Oscar nominated Bel Powley (Diary of a Teenage Girl) bested Oscar nominee Cate Blanchett (Carol) and the eventual Oscar winner, Brie Larson (Room).

On the Television side, I’m thinking this small group goes with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and IFP.

The 2016 IFP Gotham Independent Film Awards will be announced tomorrow with the Red carpet and Awards Show streaming live on Facebook starting at 6:30pm ET.

Here are my predicted winners in RED:

FILM

Best Feature

Certain Women
Kelly Reichardt, director; Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani, producers (IFC Films)

Everybody Wants Some!!
Richard Linklater, director; Megan Ellison, Ginger Sledge, Richard Linklater, producers (Paramount Pictures)

Manchester by the Sea
Kenneth Lonergan, director; Kimberly Steward, Matt Damon, Chris Moore, Lauren Beck, Kevin J. Walsh, producers (Amazon Studios)

Moonlight
Barry Jenkins, director; Adele Romanski, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, producers (A24)

Paterson
Jim Jarmusch, director; Joshua Astrachan, Carter Logan, producers (Amazon Studios)

Best Documentary

Cameraperson
Kirsten Johnson, director; Marilyn Ness, producer (Janus Films)

I Am Not Your Negro
Raoul Peck, director; Rémi Grellety, Raoul Peck, Hébert Peck, producers (Magnolia Pictures)

O.J.: Made in America
Ezra Edelman, director; Caroline Waterlow, Ezra Edelman, Tamara Rosenberg, Nina Krstic, Deirdre Fenton, Erin Leyden, producers (ESPN Films)

Tower
Keith Maitland, director; Keith Maitland, Megan Gilbride, Susan Thomson, producers (Kino Lorber, Independent Lens)

Weiner
Josh Kriegman, Elyse Steinberg, directors and producers (Sundance Selects and Showtime Documentary Films)

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award

Robert Eggers for The Witch (A24)

Anna Rose Holmer for The Fits (Oscilloscope Laboratories)

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Swiss Army Man (A24)

Trey Edward Shults for Krisha (A24)

Richard Tanne for Southside with You (Roadside Attractions and Miramax)

Best Screenplay

Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan (CBS Films)

Love & Friendship, Whit Stillman (Amazon Studios)

Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan (Amazon Studios)

Moonlight, Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney; Screenplay by Barry Jenkins (A24)

Paterson, Jim Jarmusch (Amazon Studios)

Best Actor

Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios)

Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (CBS Films)

Adam Driver in Paterson (Amazon Studios)

Joel Edgerton in Loving (Focus Features)

Craig Robinson in Morris from America (A24)

Best Actress

Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship (Amazon Studios)

Annette Bening in 20^th Century Women (A24)

Isabelle Huppert in Elle (Sony Pictures Classics)

Ruth Negga in Loving (Focus Features)

Natalie Portman in Jackie (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Breakthrough Actor

Lily Gladstone in Certain Women (IFC Films)

Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios)

Royalty Hightower in The Fits (Oscilloscope Laboratories)

Sasha Lane in American Honey (A24)

Anya Taylor-Joy in The Witch (A24)

TELEVISION

Breakthrough Series – Long Form

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Rachel Bloom & Aline Brosh McKenna, creators; Marc Webb, Rachel Bloom, Aline Brosh McKenna, Erin Ehrlich, executive producers (The CW)

The Girlfriend Experience, Lodge Kerrigan, Amy Seimetz, creators; Steven Soderbergh, Philip Fleischman, Amy Seimetz, Lodge Kerrigan, Jeff Cuban, Gary Marcus, executive producers (Starz)

Horace and Pete, Louis C.K., creator; M. Blair Breard, Dave Becky, Vernon Chatman, Dino Stamatopoulos, executive producers (louisck.net)

Marvel’s Jessica Jones, Melissa Rosenberg, creator; Melissa Rosenberg, Liz Friedman, Alan Fine, Stan Lee, Joe Quesada, Dan Buckley, Jim Chory, Jeph Loeb, Howard Klein, executive producers (Netflix)

Master of None, Aziz Ansari and Alan Yang, creators; Michael Schur, David Miner, Dave Becky, executive producers (Netflix)

Breakthrough Series – Short Form

The Gay and Wondrous Life of Caleb Gallo, Brian Jordan Alvarez, creator (YouTube)

Her Story, Jen Richards and Laura Zak, creators (herstoryshow.com)

The Movement, Darnell Moore, Host (Mic.com)

Sitting in Bathrooms with Trans People, Dylan Marron, creator (Seriously.TV)

Surviving, Reagan Gomez, creator (YouTube)