2017-2018 Build by Guild: Creating a Best Picture Winner

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The Best Picture Oscar nominees are out and we also have the beginning of guild awards season underway with winners from CSA, PGA and SAG to help set us on the path Build by Guild: Creating a Best Picture winner.

Here is my ranking of who’s ahead based on who has the most guild nominations and wins, BAFTA nominations, what Oscar nominations they received and external influences that could sway Oscar voters.

1. Get Out – ACE, ADG, CDG, CSA, DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – ACE, ADG, CDG, DGA, CSA, MUAH, PGA, SAG
3. The Shape of Water – ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, CDG, CSA, DGA, MUAH, PGA, WGA
4. Lady Bird – ACE, ADG, CDG, CSA, DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA
5. Call Me By Your Name – PGA, WGA
6. Phantom Thread – CDG
7. Darkest Hour – ADG, ASC, MUAH
8. The Post – ACE, ADG, CSA, PGA
9. Dunkirk – ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, CDG, CSA, DGA, MPSE, PGA

Here is the stat history each Best Picture nominee has to face and overcome to win this year:

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri – 5 years, 23 before that (no Director nom) – Argo
The Shape of Water – 22 years (no SAG Cast nom) – Braveheart
Phantom Thread – 32 years (no major guild win) – Out of Africa
Lady Bird – 37 years (no below-the-line nominations) – Ordinary People
Call Me By Your Name – 84 years (fewer than five nominations) – Cavalcade
Get Out – 84 years (fewer than five nominations) – Cavalcade
Darkest Hour – 85 years (no directing or writing nominations) – Grand Hotel
Dunkirk – 85 years (no acting or writing nominations) – Grand Hotel
The Post – 85 years (no directing or writing nominations) – Grand Hotel

Here are the major guilds win by each Best Picture nominee so far.

Legend

ACE – American Cinema Editors
ADG – Art Directors Guild
ASC – American Society of Cinematographers
CAS – Cinema Audio Society (2/24)
CDG – Costume Designers Guild
CSA – Casting Society of America
DGA – Directors Guild of America
MPSE – Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild
MUAH – Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (2/24)
PGA – Producers Guild of America
SAG – Screen Actors Guild of America
WGA – Writers Guild of America