2017 Golden Globe Winner Predictions – MOTION PICTURE

Erik Anderson January 1, 2017

A lot of tough races should make the motion picture categories at the Golden Globes exciting. (from top; Moonlight, La La Land, Toni Erdmann) — A lot of tight races should make the motion picture categories at the Golden Globes exciting. (from top; **Moonlight**, **La La Land**, **Toni Erdmann**)

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We’re just a week away from the Golden Globes so it’s time for winner predictions! This is really where the race could start to take shape…unless we have a year like last year. The Revenant won the Motion Picture – Drama prize here last year while fellow nominee Spotlight went on to win Oscar’s Best Picture. This year definitely looks like a lot of love will be sent La La Land‘s way but the real race will be in Drama again. Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight have been duking it out so far this season, each winning a healthy share of the critics’ prizes. Moonlight has won more Best Picture awards than Manchester but that doesn’t mean it will here. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association can be a fickle group – sometimes leaning with frontrunners (or at least perceived ones at the time) or just do what they want. That said, quite a few categories seem pretty locked up as you’ll see down the list. But it’s some of the majors like Motion Picture – Drama and Screenplay that really feel wide open for any number of films to snatch wins.

The Golden Globes will air live on Sunday, January 8th on NBC at 8pm EST/5pm PST and will be hosted by Jimmy Fallon.

Here are my predictions for the 2017 Golden Globes – Motion Picture.

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight (predicted winner)

With six nominations I’m giving Moonlight the edge over Manchester by the Sea but just barely. It’s a tough fight between the two films, as it’s going to be throughout the next two months. Whichever film wins here definitely puts it in direct competition with La La Land at the Oscars.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land (predicted winner)
Sing Street

As open and shut as anything will be that night. There is no way La La Land, with its field-best seven nominations and why this category is still called Musical or Comedy, can lose.

Best Motion Picture – Animated
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia (predicted winner)

Kind of tough, really. Zootopia should pull off the win but Moana and Kubo and the Two Strings will give good chase.

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Divines (France)
Elle (France)
Neruda (Chile)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany) (predicted winner)

Will the HFPA go for a film that wasn’t shortlisted at the Oscars? Will there be justice for Elle or Neruda? Probably not; Toni Erdmann seems like a good bet here.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie (predicted winner)

Natalie Portman should pick up her third Golden Globe next week but the group also really like Amy Adams – she’s won twice in the Comedy or Musical category and this is her first nomination in the Drama section. Isabelle Huppert would be an inspired pick but the Globes haven’t gone for a foreign language film performance here since Liv Ullman in The Emigrants in 1972.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (predicted winner)
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

This could be a battle between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington but Affleck has the edge for a few reasons; he’s the critical frontrunner by far, his film has more nominations and Washington just received their Cecil B. DeMille award at last year’s ceremony.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land (predicted winner)
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Emma Stone should dance to the stage for a win here in what will be part of a very big night for La La Land. Meryl Streep is her closest competition but she’s receiving the Cecil B. DeMille award that night so no need to guild the lily. Does Annette Bening have a chance? A small one, maybe. Her film did land a nomination in Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. In fact, three of the five nominees here did.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land (predicted winner)
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Will Ryan Gosling be a part of the La La Land sweep? Probably, but watch out for Hugh Grant or even Ryan Reynolds to upset. Grant is a great way to reward Florence Foster Jenkins (which has four nominations, including three for acting) and Reynolds’ campaign for a nomination (which also got one for his film, a first for Marvel) could push him all the way.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Viola Davis, Fences (predicted winner)
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Viola Davis. Next.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (predicted winner)
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Mahershala Ali. Next.

Best Director – Motion Picture
Damien Chazelle, La La Land (predicted winner)
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Damien Chazelle should be able to take this pretty easily but boy, if Barry Jenkins upsets here it’s going to be a really fun month.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight (predicted winner)
Nocturnal Animals

Possibly the toughest category with La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight all vying for a win. Even Hell or High Water is in contention here. Nocturnal Animals doesn’t seem like it should be but its two other nominations could prove otherwise. Remember, they gave Steve Jobs their screenplay win last year (which ended up snubbed at Oscar) so anything can happen. I’m going to pick Moonlight as their winner, thinking back to Birdman besting perceived frontrunner Boyhood here two years ago.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Arrival
Hidden Figures
La La Land (predicted winner)
Lion
Moonlight

Should be part of the La La Land sweep. But watch out for a possible low-key surprise win for Moonlight.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Gold,” Gold
“City of Stars,” La La Land (predicted winner)
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
“Faith,” Sing
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls

They’re not going to go all in with La La Land and not give it this award.

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.