2017 Oscar Predictions: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (August)

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Liam Neeson (Silence) remains in the top spot this month, just as he was last month and where he’s been since the first predictions back in March. Even without any more real info on the film to go on, he seems like an unmovable force here. Armie Hammer (The Birth of a Nation) stays locked in at #2 but improves his point to by five to start crowding in on Neeson. Steve Martin (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk) remains at #3 but his numbers have been chipped away. His presumed short screen time is a factor but also the rise of other contenders.

Aaron Eckhart could have a very good Oscar season as he has two high profile potential shots. First for Sully, where he rises into the top 5 this month. The Clint Eastwood bio of Captain Chelsey ‘Sully’ Sullenberger that stars Tom Hanks will be his best shot but just two spots below his showing there is his turn playing another real life character, the boxing coach Kevin Rooney to Miles Teller’s Vinny Pazienza in Bleed for This. Now at first this might not seem like his best shot but when you consider it’s being released by Open Road Films, distributor of this year’s Best Picture winner Spotlight, and the wealth of Supporting Actor Oscar nominees that come from boxing films that include Sylvester Stallone in Creed, Nick Nolte in Warrior, Burgess Meredith in Rocky and more, you can see where I’m going.

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Stephen Henderson (Fences) loses a bit of steam after his debut here last month and four names drop off the list entirely: Andre Holland and Mahershala Ali in Moonlight, John Goodman in 10 Cloverfield Lane, Ben Kingsley in War Machine (is this movie even real?) and Timothy Spall in Denial.

These make room for a pair of new entries; Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea (who has the second biggest role in the film), Warren Beatty in Rules Don’t Apply and Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals. Shannon also has Loving but it’s really just a cameo and if the Academy like Nocturnal Animals enough this would be the best place to award the film. Plus, Shannon nearly got in last year with 99 Homes where he scored all the right precursors only to just miss out on the Oscar nom. Lucas Hedges (Moonrise Kingdom, The Grand Budapest Hotel) is mostly an unknown actor and really young (he’s 19) but this category hasn’t shied away from young actors before. If Manchester by the Sea is as big a player as we think it will be it won’t be impossible to see three acting nominations come from it. Warren Beatty returns to directing with his first film in 18 years and he’s probably going to get a good push from 20th Century Fox but I wonder if his role (as Howard Hughes) is a bit too goofy. At least that’s what it looks like from the trailer.

Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins) holds onto the 10th spot with a single vote but that’s likely to end this month as Streep herself fell out of the top 5 for August. Still, it’s a pretty open category and any number of the ‘Other Contenders’ could come back or debut here in the coming months. From supporting performances in female-led films like Arrival, Jackie and Hidden Figures to a different Billy Lynn actor to Lion, any number of Oscar Best Picture hopefuls could find another nomination lurking in Supporting Actor.

Here are the August Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor from The Gold Rush Gang:

OTHER CONTENDERS
Riz Ahmed – Una
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Tadanobu Asano – Silence
Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures
Adam Driver – Silence
Brendan Gleeson – Live by Night
John Goodman – 10 Cloverfield Lane
Garrett Hedlund – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Andre Holland – Moonlight
Jack Huston – The Yellow Birds
Edward Norton – Collateral Beauty
David Oyelowo – Queen of Katwe
Edgar Ramirez – Gold
Jeremy Renner – Arrival
Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie
Timothy Spall – Denial
Chris Tucker – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
David Wenham – Lion
Mykelti Williamson – Fences

Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:

BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING