2017 Oscar Predictions: Frontrunner Friday Sees Some Close Races in the Final Stretch

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February 17, 2017 11:51 am

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We’re just over a week away from the Oscars and as we head into the final stretch something surprising is happening. We’re seeing cracks in previously ‘locked’ categories, opening the door for former frontrunners to be overtaken by late-breaking films and performances. Specifically, Best Actor is now a true horserace with Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Denzel Washington (Fences) providing us with a true nail-biter that won’t be settled until that envelope is opened. Supporting Actor is also now a real race. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) has stumbled a bit on the road to Oscar and Lion‘s Dev Patel picked up the slack with his BAFTA win last weekend. Combine the facts that Moonlight seems to have plateaued a bit while Lion is just taking off, not to mention those egregious FYC ads from TWC, and you have the makings of an upset. Something to note: the last year that none of the four acting winners did not play a real-life person was 1997. With Emma Stone now the indisputable frontrunner in Best Actress, Viola Davis in Supporting Actress, and Andrew Garfield not in play in Best Actor, that leaves Supporting Actor to keep that going. Dev Patel is the only nominee playing a real-life person. Although, you could make the argument that Ali’s Juan is based on a real person in playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney’s childhood but it’s a stretch.

Here is your Frontrunner Friday predictions for February 17th.

Best Picture

	BEST PICTURE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	100
2	Moonlight	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	90
3	Manchester By the Sea	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	80
4	Lion	5	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	67
5	Arrival	4	6	4	6	4	5	6	5	6	6	58
6	Hidden Figures	6	5	7	5	8	7	5	7	5	5	50
7	Hacksaw Ridge	7	7	6	7	6	6	7	8	7	7	42
8	Hell or High Water	9	8	8	9	7	8	8	6	9	8	30
9	Fences	8	9	9	8	9	9	9	9	8	9	23

Best Director

	DIRECTING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Damien Chazelle, La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Barry Jenkins, Moonlight	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	39
3	Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea	4	5	3	3	2	3	4	3	3	3	27
4	Denis Villeneuve, Arrival	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	23
5	Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	11

Best Actor

	ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	2	1	46
2	Denzel Washington, Fences	1	1	2	1	2	2	2	2	1	2	44
3	Ryan Gosling, La La Land	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	30
4	Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge	4	5	4	5	4	4	5	5	4	4	16
5	Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic	5	4	5	4	5	5	4	4	5	5	14

Best Actress

	ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Emma Stone, La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Isabelle Huppert, Elle	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	38
3	Natalie Portman, Jackie	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	2	3	3	32
4	Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	20
5	Ruth Negga, Loving	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Supporting Actor

	ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Mahershala Ali, Moonlight	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	2	4	3	34
2	Dev Patel, Lion	2	2	3	3	4	3	2	3	2	2	34
4	Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea	4	5	4	4	3	4	5	4	5	4	18
5	Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals	5	4	5	5	5	5	4	5	3	5	14

Best Supporting Actress

	ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Viola Davis, Fences	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	40
3	Naomie Harris, Moonlight	5	3	3	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	25
4	Nicole Kidman, Lion	4	4	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	23
5	Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	12

Best Adapted Screenplay

	WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Moonlight	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Lion	2	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	35
3	Arrival	3	4	2	4	2	2	4	2	3	4	30
4	Hidden Figures	4	3	4	3	4	4	2	4	4	3	25
5	Fences	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Original Screenplay

	WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	48
2	Manchester By the Sea	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	42
3	Hell or High Water	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	29
4	The Lobster	5	4	4	4	5	4	3	5	4	4	18
5	20th Century Women	4	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	5	5	13

Best Film Editing

	FILM EDITING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Moonlight	4	4	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	35
3	Arrival	2	3	3	3	3	4	2	4	3	4	29
4	Hacksaw Ridge	3	2	4	4	4	3	4	3	4	3	26
5	Hell or High Water	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Cinematography

	CINEMATOGRAPHY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Moonlight	3	3	2	3	2	3	3	2	3	3	33
3	Lion	4	2	5	2	4	2	2	3	2	2	32
4	Arrival	2	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	5	4	23
5	Silence	5	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	12

Best Production Design

	PRODUCTION DESIGN	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	35
3	Arrival	3	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	5	2	33
4	Hail, Caesar!	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	19
5	Passengers	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	13

Best Costume Design

	COSTUME DESIGN	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Jackie	1	1	1	1	3	1	1	2	1	1	47
2	La La Land	2	2	2	3	1	3	2	1	2	2	40
3	Florence Foster Jenkins	3	4	3	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	32
4	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	20
5	Allied	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	11

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

	MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Star Trek Beyond	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	A Man Called Ove	2	2	2	3	2	2	3	3	3	2	36
3	Suicide Squad	3	3	3	2	3	3	2	2	2	3	34

Best Original Score

	MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Lion	2	2	3	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	38
3	Moonlight	3	3	2	3	4	4	3	4	3	4	27
4	Jackie	4	4	4	4	2	3	4	3	4	3	25
5	Passengers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Original Song

	MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	“City Of Stars,” La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	“Audition,” La La Land	3	2	2	3	3	2	2	2	3	3	35
2	“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana	2	3	3	2	2	3	3	3	2	2	35
4	“Can’t Stop The Feeling!” Trolls	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	20
5	“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Sound Editing

	SOUND EDITING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Hacksaw Ridge	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	49
2	Arrival	3	2	2	3	1	3	2	3	2	2	37
3	La La Land	2	3	3	2	3	2	3	4	3	3	32
4	Deepwater Horizon	4	5	4	4	5	4	5	2	5	4	18
5	Sully	5	4	5	5	4	5	4	5	4	5	14

Best Sound Mixing

	SOUND MIXING	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	La La Land	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Hacksaw Ridge	3	3	3	2	2	2	3	2	3	2	35
3	Arrival	2	2	2	3	3	3	2	4	2	3	34
4	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	21
5	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Visual Effects

	VISUAL EFFECTS	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	The Jungle Book	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Doctor Strange	4	4	3	4	3	4	2	2	2	3	29
2	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	5	3	4	2	2	2	5	3	3	2	29
4	Deepwater Horizon	2	5	2	3	4	3	4	4	5	4	24
5	Kubo and the Two Strings	3	2	5	5	5	5	2	5	4	5	19

Best Animated Feature

	ANIMATED FEATURE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Zootopia	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	50
2	Kubo and the Two Strings	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	39
3	Moana	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	3	31
4	My Life as a Zucchini	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	20
5	The Red Turtle	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Documentary Feature

	DOCUMENTARY FEATURE	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	OJ: Made In America	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	48
2	13TH	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	1	2	40
3	I Am Not Your Negro	3	3	3	3	4	2	2	3	4	3	30
4	Life, Animated	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	5	4	20
5	Fire At Sea	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	3	5	12

Best Foreign Language Film

	FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Toni Erdmann (Germany)	2	2	1	2	2	1	2	1	2	2	43
2	The Salesman (Iran)	1	1	4	1	3	4	1	3	1	1	40
3	Land Of Mine (Denmark)	3	4	2	3	4	2	3	2	3	3	31
4	A Man Called Ove (Sweden)	4	3	3	4	1	3	4	4	4	4	26
5	Tanna (Australia)	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10

Best Short: Documentary

	SHORTS (DOCUMENTARY)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	The White Helmets	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	48
2	Joe’s Violin	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	3	2	2	41
3	4.1 Miles	4	3	4	4	4	3	4	4	3	3	24
4	Watani: My Homeland	3	5	3	3	3	5	3	2	5	5	23
5	Extremis	5	4	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	14

Best Short: Animated

	SHORTS (ANIMATED)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Piper	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	49
2	Pearl	1	2	2	2	2	4	4	3	2	3	35
3	Blind Vaysha	3	3	3	4	4	3	2	2	3	2	31
4	Borrowed Time	4	4	4	3	3	2	5	5	4	4	22
5	Pear Cider & Cigarettes	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	5	12

Best Short: Live-Action

	SHORTS (LIVE ACTION)	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	CHRIS PEPPER	EVAN KOST	JAMES NARVEY	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	JÚLIA ALBUQUERQUE	MONIKA NIKOLIĆ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ROBERT SCHIRMER	TOTAL POINTS
1	Timecode	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	49
2	Sing	5	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	38
3	Silent Nights	2	3	4	3	3	3	4	4	3	4	27
4	Ennemis Interiors	3	4	3	4	4	4	3	3	4	3	25
5	La Femme et le TGV	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	11

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.