2018 BAFTA Preview and Predictions: Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards all in the mix

BAFTA is this weekend and, like the Oscars, there’s a lot that seems up in the air – especially in the top category. There are legitimate cases to be had for Dunkirk, The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to capture the Brits’ top film prize.

This is also the last opportunity for an awards body to reach outside of the the four acting frontrunners that have dominated the race since the televised awards started. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Allison Janney (I, Tonya) have won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actors Guild awards in their respective categories and enter BAFTA as frontrunners. If they all win here it will be unprecedented as no group of four has won all four of these precursors before heading into the Oscars. 2014 got close but only if you take out CC (where Michael Keaton bested eventual Oscar-winner Eddie Redmayne).

So, are any of these acting frontrunners even vulnerable? I don’t think Oldman or McDormand are, their films are clearly loved by BAFTA. The US backlash against Three Billboards doesn’t seem to have reached across the pond (and honestly, considering BAFTA’s history of race-based films, that’s not a surprise) so Rockwell seems safe too. Allison Janney (I, Tonya) is where I think we could see a shift, if ever so tiny. But if she loses, it won’t be to Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), it will be to Lesley Manville. Not only did Manville’s nomination here prophecy her Oscar nomination, Phantom Thread massively over-performed on Oscar nomination morning and positions Manville as a real threat to upset. So much so that I’m predicting it to happen. It’s probably a fool’s bet and Janney will sail through as the rest of her royal court will but it could happen.

While Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) will probably give some chase to Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) in Best Director, del Toro should be able to steamroll through on his way to Oscar. Best Film is a real pickle; I’m going with The Shape of Water to take its PGA win over to BAFTA but they loved Dunkirk and Three Billboards, the latter especially. I think Three Billboards might have to settle for British Film (where Dunkirk decided not to submit), but along with its two likely acting wins I also have it winning Original Screenplay. That category is, like at the Oscars (and the WGA last week), very competitive. Four of the five Oscar nominees are here (like WGA, but a different four) and if anything other than Three Billboards wins it would be surprising but exciting. What if Get Out‘s Jordan Peele (who is not attending) shocks and repeats his WGA win but for the first time in direct competition with Three Billboards? That would all but secure the Oscar for him. But, let’s not forget that last year Moonlight lost all of its bids here that it turned around and won at the Oscars. BAFTA often takes its own road and that could happen this year too.

Nominees confirmed to date include (in alphabetical order): Annette Bening, Jamie Bell, Alice Birch, Timothée Chalamet, Park Chan-wook, Daniel Day-Lewis,  Greta Gerwig, Hugh Grant, Matt Greenhalgh, Luca Guadagnino, Sally Hawkins, David Heyman, Armando Iannucci, James Ivory, Allison Janney, Angelina Jolie, Daniel Kaluuya, Paul King, Francis Lee, Lesley Manville, Martin McDonagh, Frances McDormand, Christopher Nolan, Josh O’Connor, Gary Oldman, William Oldroyd, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie,  Sam Rockwell, Alexander Rodnyansky, Steven Rogers, Saoirse Ronan, Vanessa Taylor, Kristin Scott Thomas, Aaron Sorkin, Octavia Spencer, Tessa Thompson, Denis Villeneuve, Joe Wright, Andrey Zvyagintsev.

Presenters and other attendees confirmed to date include (in alphabetical order): Gemma Arterton, Orlando Bloom, Sam Claflin, Bryan Cranston, Natalie Dormer, Taron Egerton, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rebecca Ferguson, Karen Gillan, Naomie Harris, Salma Hayek, Edward Holcroft, Nicholas Hoult, Isabelle Huppert, Lily James, Jennifer Lawrence, Gugu Mbatha Raw, Lupita Nyong’o, Sergei Polunin, Will Poulter, Andrea Riseborough, Sir Patrick Stewart, Mark Strong, Hayley Squires, Tom Taylor, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rachel Weisz, Letitia Wright.

As previously announced, The National Film and Television School (NFTS) will receive the Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema Award and Sir Ridley Scott will be honored with the BAFTA Fellowship.

The 2018 EE British Film Academy Awards are this Sunday the 18th and will be hosted, for the first time, by Joanna Lumley. The ceremony will be broadcast on BBC One and BBC One HD at 21.00 GMT (that’s 1:00pm PST). Edith Bowman and Dermot O’Leary will host the official red carpet live, which will be broadcast globally on BAFTA’s Facebook (/BAFTA), Twitter (@BAFTA / #EEBAFTAs) and via EE’s Facebook page (/EE) at 17.00 GMT (9:00am PST), with highlights also shown on the BBC One.

Here are my predictions of what and who Will Win, Could Win and Should win.

BEST FILM

Will win:  THE SHAPE OF WATER
Could win: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Should win: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Also nominated: DARKEST HOUR, DUNKIRK

DIRECTOR

Will win: THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro
Could win: DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan
Should win: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Luca Guadagnino

Also nominated: BLADE RUNNER 2049 Denis Villeneuve; THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh

LEADING ACTRESS

Will win: FRANCES McDORMAND Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: SALLY HAWKINS The Shape of Water
Should win: SAOIRSE RONAN Lady Bird

Also nominated: ANNETTE BENING Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool; MARGOT ROBBIE I, Tonya

LEADING ACTOR

Will win: GARY OLDMAN Darkest Hour
Could win/Should win: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET Call Me by Your Name
Also nominated: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS Phantom Thread; DANIEL KALUUYA Get Out; JAMIE BELL Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win/Should win: LESLEY MANVILLE Phantom Thread

Could win: ALLISON JANNEY I, Tonya

Also nominated: KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS Darkest Hour; LAURIE METCALF Lady Bird; OCTAVIA SPENCER The Shape of Water

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: SAM ROCKWELL Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: WILLEM DAFOE The Florida Project
Could win: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER All the Money in the World

Also nominated: HUGH GRANT Paddington 2; WOODY HARRELSON Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

Will win: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Could win: DARKEST HOUR
Should win: GOD’S OWN COUNTRY

Also nominated: THE DEATH OF STALIN, LADY MACBETH, PADDINGTON 2

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

Will win/Should win: LADY MACBETH Alice Birch (Writer), William Oldroyd (Director), Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly (Producer)
Could win: I AM NOT A WITCH Rungano Nyoni (Writer/Director), Emily Morgan (Producer)

Also nominated: THE GHOUL Gareth Tunley (Writer/Director/Producer), Jack Healy Guttman & Tom Meeten (Producers); JAWBONE Johnny Harris (Writer/Producer), Thomas Napper (Director); KINGDOM OF US Lucy Cohen (Director)

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

Will win/Should win: ELLE
Could win: LOVELESS

Also nominated: FIRST THEY KILLED MY FATHER, THE HANDMAIDEN, THE SALESMAN

DOCUMENTARY

Will win: JANE
Could win/Should win: I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO

Also nominated: CITY OF GHOSTS, ICARUS, AN INCONVENIENT SEQUEL

ANIMATED FILM

Will win/Should win: COCO
Could win: LOVING VINCENT

MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Could win: THE SHAPE OF WATER
Should win: GET OUT

Also nominated: I, TONYA, LADY BIRD

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win/Should win: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Also nominated: THE DEATH OF STALIN, FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL, MOLLY’S GAME, PADDINGTON 2

ORIGINAL MUSIC

Will win: THE SHAPE OF WATER
Could win/Should win: PHANTOM THREAD

Also nominated: BLADE RUNNER 2049, DARKEST HOUR, DUNKIRK

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: THE SHAPE OF WATER
Could win: DUNKIRK
Should win: BLADE RUNNER 2049

Also nominated: DARKEST HOUR, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

EDITING

Will win/Should win: DUNKIRK
Could win: BABY DRIVER

Also nominated: BLADE RUNNER 2049, THE SHAPE OF WATER, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will win/Should win: BLADE RUNNER 2049
Could win: THE SHAPE OF WATER

Also nominated: BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, DARKEST HOUR, DUNKIRK

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win/Should win: PHANTOM THREAD
Could win: BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

Also nominated: DARKEST HOUR, I, TONYA, THE SHAPE OF WATER

MAKE-UP & HAIR

Will win: DARKEST HOUR
Could win: WONDER
Should win: I, TONYA

Also nominated: BLADE RUNNER 2049, VICTORIA & ABDUL

SOUND

Will win: DUNKIRK
Could win: BABY DRIVER
Should win: BLADE RUNNER 2049

Also nominated: THE SHAPE OF WATER, STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win/Should win: BLADE RUNNER 2049
Could win: WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

Also nominated: DUNKIRK, THE SHAPE OF WATE, STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)

Will win/Should win: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET
Could win: DANIEL KALUUYA

Also nominated: FLORENCE PUGH, JOSH O’CONNOR, TESSA THOMPSON