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Big debuts (The Post, Suburbicon) and big drops (Paul Thomas Anderson’s Untitled Fashion Project, The Current War) and big rises (Mudbound, Call Me By Your Name) highlights April’s official Best Picture predictions from the Gold Rush Gang.
While the top three (Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit Riots Project, Downsizing, and Wonderstruck) remains the same, elsewhere on the list sees a fair amount of movement with The Post not only replacing Steven Spielberg’s now-shelved The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara but debuting five spots higher, at #4. That bumped down Darkest Hour, Dunkirk and Lean on Pete just a bit and the remaining top 10 all comes from big leaps and bounds from Mudbound, Call Me By Your Name, Inner City, Last Flag Flying and mother!, the last three of which are tied for 10th place.
Despite Bigelow’s Detroit Riots Project maintaining the #1 spot for the second month, its point totals are being chipped away by growing strength of other films in the top 10, most notably #2 Downsizing and #3 Wonderstruck, both of which showed footage at last month’s CinemaCon to boost their visibility. Bigelow’s film, which has an August 4th release date, has yet to reveal any official stills or even a title. Conversely, the announcement of December release dates for The Current War and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Fashion Project partially led to their precipitous drops.
Along with The Post, this month sees three other debuts; Suburbicon and The Greatest Showman, both of which showed footage at CinemaCon, and Breathe.
LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #53 – CinemaCon Buzz; the Oscars in a post-Moonlight world
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for April from the Gold Rush Gang.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| BEST PICTURE | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unititled Kathryn Bigelow Detriot Riots Project (Annapurna – 8/4) | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 88 |
| 2 | Downsizing (Paramount – 12/22) | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 83 |
| 3 | Wonderstruck (Amazon) | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 78 |
| 4 | The Post (20th Century Fox) | 4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 64 |
| 5 | Darkest Hour (Focus Features – 11/24) | 8 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 60 |
| 6 | Dunkirk (Warner Bros – 7/21) | 9 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 46 |
| 7 | Lean on Pete (A24) | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 37 | |
| 8 | Mudbound (Netflix) | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 19 | |||||
| 9 | Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics – 11/24) | 9 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | ||||||
| 10 | Inner City (Sony) (possibly 2018) | 6 | 7 | 9 | ||||||||
| 10 | Last Flag Flying (Amazon) | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | ||||||
| 10 | mother! (Paramount – 10/13) | 6 | 7 | 9 | ||||||||
| 10 | Suburbicon (Paramount 11/3) | 5 | 10 | 9 | 9 | |||||||
| 10 | Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros – 10/6) | 5 | 8 | 9 | ||||||||
| 15 | Current War, The (The Weinstein Company – 12/22) | 9 | 9 | 4 | ||||||||
| 16 | Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Fashion Project (Focus Features – 12/25) | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| 17 | Happy End (Sony Pictures Classics) | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| 17 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight) | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| 19 | Greatest Showman, The (20th Century Fox – 12/25) | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 19 | Breathe (Bleecker Street) | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Aftermath, The (Fox Searchlight) | ||||||||||||
| Beguiled, The (Focus Features – 6/30) | ||||||||||||
| Disobedience (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Get Out (Universal – 2/24) | ||||||||||||
| Glass Castle, The (Lionsgate) | ||||||||||||
| Hostiles (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Kings (TBD) | ||||||||||||
| Leisure Seeker, The (Sony Pictures Classics) | ||||||||||||
| Marshall (Open Road Films – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Mary Magdalene (The Weinstein Company – 11/24) | ||||||||||||
| Molly’s Game (STX Entertainment) | ||||||||||||
| Mountain Between Us, The (20th Century Fox – 10/20) | ||||||||||||
| Murder on the Orient Express (20th Century Fox – 11/22) | ||||||||||||
| Red Sparrow (20th Century Fox – 11/10) | ||||||||||||
| Shape of Water, The (Fox Searchlight) | ||||||||||||
| Snowman, The (Universal – 10/13) | ||||||||||||
| Stronger (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions – 9/22) | ||||||||||||
| Under the Silver Lake (A24) | ||||||||||||
| Untouchable (The Weinstein Company) | ||||||||||||
| Victoria and Abdul (Focus Features) | ||||||||||||
| Wind River (The Weinstein Company – 8/4) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder Wheel (Amazon) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder (Lionsgate – 11/17) |
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