2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (April)
Not much change this month in the screenplay categories from last month; Adapted Screenplay has the same top 6 and in the same order with Wonderstruck holding a commanding lead but Call Me Your Name is still strong and Lean on Pete gains in points.
Original Screenplay is virtually unchanged in its top 5 save for the addition of The Post. It replaces Paul Thomas Anderson’s Fashion Project, which plummets to #11. Otherwise, #1, #2, #3, and #5 remain the same. Downsizing widens the gap between itself and Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit Riots Project. Last month a single point separated the two, this month Downsizing‘s point total is +8.
LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #53 – CinemaCon Buzz; the Oscars in a post-Moonlight world
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Adapted and Original Screenplay for April from the Gold Rush Gang.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
|
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
|
ERIK
ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE
|
GREG HOWARD
|
EVAN
KOST |
JASON OSIASON
|
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ
|
RICHARD
ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT
|
MATT DINN
|
TOTAL
POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wonderstruck | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 94 |
| 2 | Call Me By Your Name | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 84 |
| 3 | Lean on Pete | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 80 |
| 4 | Last Flag Flying | 5 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 63 |
| 5 | Mudbound | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 55 | |
| 6 | Molly’s Game | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 48 |
| 7 | Disobedience | 6 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| 8 | Victoria and Abdul | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 25 |
| 9 | Leisure Seeker, The | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 22 | ||
| 10 | The Death of Stalin | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 18 | ||||||
| 11 | How to Talk to Girls at Parties | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 4 | ||||||
| 11 | Blade Runner 2049 | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||||||||
| 13 | Can You Ever Forgive Me? | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Beguiled, The | ||||||||||||
| Glass Castle, The | ||||||||||||
| Mountain Between Us, The | ||||||||||||
| Snowman, The | ||||||||||||
| Stronger | ||||||||||||
| Thoroughbred | ||||||||||||
| Untouchable | ||||||||||||
| Wonder | ||||||||||||
| You Were Never Really Here |
|
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
|
ERIK
ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE
|
GREG HOWARD
|
EVAN
KOST |
JASON OSIASON
|
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ
|
RICHARD
ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT
|
MATT DINN
|
TOTAL
POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Downsizing | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 97 |
| 2 | Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Project | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 89 |
| 3 | Darkest Hour | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 71 |
| 4 | The Post | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 65 | |
| 5 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 7 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 48 |
| 6 | Get Out | 6 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Inner City (possibly 2018) | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 31 | ||||
| 8 | Current War, The | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 22 | ||
| 8 | Happy End | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22 | |||||
| 10 | Suburbicon | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 20 | |||||
| 11 | Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Fashion Project | 10 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 19 | |||||
| 12 | mother! | 9 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 15 | ||||||
| 13 | Killing of a Sacred Deer, The | 9 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||
| 14 | Brad’s Status | 9 | 9 | 4 | ||||||||
| 15 | Dunkirk | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| 16 | Greatest Showman, The | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 17 | Wonder Wheel | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 17 | Wind River | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Baby Driver | ||||||||||||
| Breathe | ||||||||||||
| Hostiles | ||||||||||||
| I, Tonya (possibly 2018) | ||||||||||||
| Kings | ||||||||||||
| Marshall | ||||||||||||
| Mary Magdalene | ||||||||||||
| Novitiate | ||||||||||||
| Shape of Water, The | ||||||||||||
| Tully | ||||||||||||
| Under the Silver Lake | ||||||||||||
| Untitled A. A. Milne biopic |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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