After months of moving the puzzle pieces around for Best Supporting Actor between Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards) and Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name), and even the recent surge of Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name), the first trio of major critics’ awards (the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association have all zeroed in on one name: Willem Dafoe. And with that, we have a real frontrunner and very possibly a run like Mahershala Ali had last year with Moonlight; gobbling up award after award before winning the Oscar. Incidentally, both Ali and Dafoe play father figures to the fatherless in southern Florida.
Sam Rockwell, Michael Stuhlbarg and Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) still hold on to their same spots as last month but the above-mentioned Hammer makes a big move into the top 5 at #4, bumping Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) down to #7 right beneath his co-star and competition, Richard Jenkins. Although it’s been over 25 years since we’ve had dual Supporting Actor nominations from the same film (last time was Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley for 1991’s Bugsy) we could finally be looking at it happening again. The Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes should help us out on that being a reality or not.
The biggest break onto the chart is Bob Odenkirk for The Post. After lingering in the Other Contenders list for a few months the film finally screened and Odenkirk not only has the largest supporting actor part, he’s the only character outside of Streep and Hanks that propels the action. He could definitely find himself in contention if the film itself overperforms.
The two other debuts this month are Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards) and Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World). Plummer recently replaced Kevin Spacey in the role of J. Paul Getty after Spacey was fired and in a 10-day reshoot is now already in new TV spots and trailers for the film in one of the quickest turnarounds I’ve ever seen. The notoriety of this replacement is enough to keep him in the 6-10 tier of conversation but is it enough to propel him into the top 5?
Someone to keep an eye is Patrick Stewart in Logan. Despite being a comic book movie he has a strong character arc, he’s a respected veteran who’s never been nominated and Logan was the first screener sent out this year for consideration. Although he’s still in the Other Contenders list, he’s started showing up in some critics’ groups nomination lists and if he hits SAG he’ll need to be taken seriously.
2018 Oscar Predictions (December Part 1): BEST PICTURE | BEST DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for the first half of December from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| SUPPORTING ACTOR | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 96 |
| 2 | Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 93 |
| 3 | Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 73 |
| 4 | Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 71 |
| 5 | Mark Rylance – Dunkirk | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 46 |
| 7 | Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 42 | |
| 8 | Jason Mitchell – Mudbound | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24 |
| 9 | Bob Odenkirk – The Post | 9 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 21 | ||||
| 10 | Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | |||||
| 11 | Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||||
| 12 | Ray Romano – The Big Sick | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| 12 | Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| 12 | Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 15 | Garrett Hedlund – Mudbound | 10 | 1 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
Ali Fazal – Victoria and Abdul
Bradley Whitford – The Post
Christoph Waltz – Downsizing
Colin Farrell – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Dustin Hoffman – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)
Ed Harris – mother!
Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049
Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
Jacob Tremblay – Wonder
Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Javier Bardem – mother!
Jim Belushi – Wonder Wheel
John Boyega – Detroit
Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying
Michael Stuhlbarg – The Post
Patrick Stewart – Logan
Sterling K. Brown – Marshall
Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
Will Poulter – Detroit
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