2018 Oscar Predictions – SUPPORTING ACTRESS (March)

Erik Anderson March 8, 2017

Top: Kristin Scott Thomas, Hong Chau, Rachel McAdams, Julianne Moore Bottom: Melissa Leo, Michelle Pfeiffer — Top: Kristin Scott Thomas, Hong Chau, Rachel McAdams, Julianne MooreBottom: Melissa Leo, Michelle Pfeiffer

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As we’ve seen in this category before, a “supporting” actress can often be the co-lead to a male or female counterpart of the same film. The last two winners here, Viola Davis (Fences) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), as well as Rooney Mara (Carol), are proof positive that sometimes category fraud can march you right up to the Oscar stage. Then sometimes you have performances that could go either way, campaign in lead and get nominated, like The Theory of Everything‘s Felicity Jones.

It’s never really certain when a studio or performer will decide whether they are submitted in Lead or Supporting and last year the Gold Rush Gang had Viola Davis in Lead all year until she officially announced to campaign in Supporting. But, we did have all four other eventual Oscar nominees in predicted here this time last year.

This year could yield at least few possible category frauded performances from Best Actress; Brie Larson in The Glass Castle and Rachel Weisz in Disobedience are two performances we don’t know enough about so we have them listed on both charts. Interestingly, both films have actresses more likely (and currently predicted) to land supporting spots, which may dictate future campaigns.

When you take a look at how many actresses got votes in this first round it’s impressive to note just how many possibilities we have. One of the reasons last season was easy was because it felt pretty locked in really early on. The roles just weren’t there. This year has a wealth of choices from likely Best Picture nominees as well as stand-alone performances. We have returning Oscar winners and nominees as well as first-time hopefuls.

Leading the charge is Julianne Moore in Wonderstruck from Todd Haynes. With the film and Haynes placed so high in Best Picture and Director, having Moore represent the best chance for an acting nomination for the film just makes sense. Now that she’s finally an Oscar winner it makes predicting her even easier. Right behind her though is another Oscar winner, Melissa Leo in Novitiate. Playing the Reverend Mother in 1960s Vatican about a nun struggling with faith and sexuality, this has the potential to be a barn burner of a performance from Leo.

Kristin Scott Thomas is looking for her first Oscar nomination since 1996’s The English Patient with Joe Wright’s Churchill biopic Darkest Hour. With a lead actor performance (from Gary Oldman) that’s not only a lock for a nomination but an early and sole frontrunner to win, Scott Thomas is given a healthy headstart, playing the wife of the world’s most well-known prime minister.

Someone we’re looking at closely is Hong Chau from Alexander Payne’s Downsizing. Little is known of the film outside of its premise but Inherent Vice actress (and currently on HBO’s Big Little Lies) could be the first Asian actress nominated here since Rinko Kikuchi in 2006’s Babel. Chau was born and raised in New Orleans from Vietnamese immigrant parents. She will, however, be up against her co-star Kristen Wiig.

Michelle Pfeiffer could be looking at an Oscar comeback with Darren Aronofsky’s mother! with Jennifer Lawrence. Pfeiffer, who was a three-time Oscar nominee in the span of five years between 1989-1993, also has Where Is Kyra? (if it finds distribution) and HBO’s The Wizard of Lies, playing the wife of corrupt Wall Street-er Bernie Madoff this year so we could be seeing a major renaissance for her.

After the top five is a tremendous list of actresses, any of whom could land a spot. From Michelle Williams in The Greatest Showman to Mary J. Blige in Mudbound (she received rave reviews in a breakthrough role for the singer) to Katherine Waterston in The Current War to Allison Janney in I, Tonya (if it comes out in 2017) and Nicole Kidman in The Beguiled, the supporting actress category could be one of this year’s most exciting acting categories to predict to watch unfold.

Here are the first Best Supporting Actress predictions of the 2018 Oscar season from the new Gold Rush Gang:

SUPPORTING ACTRESS	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	3	3	1	94
2	Melissa Leo – Novitiate	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	4	1	2	91
3	Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour	4	6	3	4	8	3	3	1	5	5	68
4	Hong Chau – Downsizing	5	3	5	5	3	4	5	5	8	3	64
5	Michelle Pfeiffer – mother!	7	5	7	3	7	7	4	2	2	6	60

6	Rachel McAdams – Disobedience		9	6	7	5	8	10	6	10	9	29
7	Katherine Waterston – The Current War			4	6	4	5	8				28
8	Mary J. Blige – Mudbound	6		8	8		10	6	9	6	8	27
9	Allison Janney – I, Tonya (likely 2018)	3	7			6	9			9	7	25
10	Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman			10	9		6	7		4		19
11	Vicky Krieps – Untitled P.T. Anderson Project		4	9							4	16
12	Chloë Sevigny – Lean on Pete	9				10			7			7
12	Jennifer Jason Leigh – Annihilation		8						8		10	7
14	Holly Hunter – The Big Sick									7		4
15	Kristen Wiig – Downsizing	8										3
16	Mackenzie Davis – Tully					9						2
16	Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle							9				2
16	Claire Foy – Breathe		10						10			2
19	Danai Gurira – All Eyez On Me	10										1
19	Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled				10							1

OTHER CONTENDERS
Brie Larson – The Glass Castle
Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ
Julie Walters – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
Lesley Manville – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
Margot Robbie – Untitled A.A. Milne Biopic
Rachel Weisz – Disobedience
Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman
Riley Keough – Under the Silver Lake
Rosamund Pike – Entebbe
Tessa Thompson – Annihilation
Vanessa Redgrave – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.