2018 Oscar Predictions – THE SCREENPLAYS

Erik Anderson March 9, 2017

Top: Wonderstruck, Call Me By Your Name, Lean on Pete Bottom: Downsizing, Kathryn Bigelow's Untitled Detroit Riots Project, Darkest Hour — Top: Wonderstruck, Call Me By Your Name, Lean on PeteBottom: Downsizing, Kathryn Bigelow’s Untitled Detroit Riots Project, Darkest Hour

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Screenplay predictions can be a bit tricky this early on as we saw with this year’s Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner Moonlight, which won multiple Original Screenplay citations from critics as well as the Writers Guild of America but was deemed Adapted by the Academy deep into the Oscar season.

Both screenplay categories are top-heavy with Best Picture material at the moment, with Original Screenplay carrying the burden as a very packed category this season. It’s going to be quite a fight as we move through the season. The top two; Downsizing and Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit Riots Project are at just a one point separation. After that, Darkest Hour looks safe and then it’s another one-point race between Paul Thomas Anderson’s Fashion Project with Daniel Day-Lewis and Martin McDonaugh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Jordan Peele’s blockbuster horror/thriller Get Out lands at #6. Adapted is a bit thinner, with Wonderstruck, Call Me By Your Name and Lean on Pete clear leaders. The next three spots are held by Last Flag Flying, Mudbound and Molly’s Game in a very close race.

Last year the Gold Rush Gang didn’t start our screenplay predictions until May and had Moonlight (in Original), Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land in our predictions with The Lobster and Hidden Figures on our Other Contenders list. These started taking shape near the end of summer and by the time Moonlight was moved to Adapted that category was locked in.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang:

	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Wonderstruck	1	1	1	1	3	1	1	6	1	1	93
2	Call Me By Your Name	2	2	2	2	1	5	2	5	3	2	84
3	Lean on Pete	5	3	6	3	4	2	3	2	2	3	77
4	Last Flag Flying	6	6	7	5	2	7	6	9	4	4	54
5	Mudbound	3	9	4	4	10	3	7	4	6	7	53

6	Molly’s Game	4	5	5	7	9	6	5	7	5	6	51
7	The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara	7		3	6		4	4	1			41
8	Annihilation	9	4			5	10		3	7	5	34
9	Disobedience	8	7	10	8	8	8		8	10	10	22
10	Victoria and Abdul	10	8	8	10			10	10	9	8	15
11	The Leisure Seeker			9	9			8		8	9	12
12	Blade Runner 2049		10			6	9					8
13	How to Talk to Girls at Parties					7						4
14	The Glass Castle							9				2


	OTHER CONTENDERS
	The Beguiled
	The Mountain Between Us
	The Snowman
	You Were Never Really Here

	ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Downsizing	1	1	3	1	1	2	2	2	1	1	95
2	Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Project	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	1	2	2	94
3	Darkest Hour	4	5	4	3	3	3	3	4	3	5	73
4	Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Fashion Project	6	7	2	7	6	7	5	3	4	6	57
5	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	3	4	7	6	4	8	4	9	5	4	56

6	Get Out	5	8	6	5	7	6	9	10	9	7	38
7	Happy End		6	5	4		4	7			8	32
8	The Current War	9		9	9	5	5	6	7	7		31
9	Inner City (possibly 2018)		3						6	6	3	26
10	Dunkirk	7		10	8	10	9	8	8		10	18
11	mother!	10	9	8	10				5			13
12	Brad’s Status					8		10			9	6
13	The Killing of a Sacred Deer									8		3
13	Wind River	8										3
13	Baby Driver		10			9						3
16	Tully									10		1
16	Wonder Wheel						10					1

	OTHER CONTENDERS
	Breathe
	The Greatest Showman
	Hostiles
	I, Tonya (likely 2018)
	Kings
	Marshall
	Mary Magdalene
	The Shape of Water
	Suburbicon
	Under the Silver Lake
	Untitled A. A. Milne biopic

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.