2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (April) – ‘Widows’ Moves Up, ‘Cheney’ Remains
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As in Best Picture and Best Director, Widows replaces BlacKkKlansman for the #1 spot this month in Adapted Screenplay. The Spike Lee film, which will make its debut at the Cannes Film Festival next month, dips just a bit to #3. Barry Jenkins’s adaptation of James Baldwin’s If Beale Street Could Talk moves up to #2.
This year is the opposite of last year with a wealth of contenders vying for a spot. Outside the top 10 we also have potential contenders in Beautiful Boy, The Front Runner, Old Man and the Gun, The Sisters Brothers, Where’d You Go Bernadette, Wildlife and The Women of Marwen.
Here are my predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay as of April 19, 2018.
| 1. Widows |
| 2. If Beale Street Could Talk |
| 3. BlacKkKlansman |
| 4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
| 5. First Man |
| 6. Mary Queen of Scots |
| 7. Boy Erased |
| 8. Untitled Pippa Bianco aka Share |
| 9. Crazy Rich Asians |
| 10. Black Panther |
| OTHER CONTENDERS |
| The Aftermath |
| Beautiful Boy |
| The Catcher Was a Spy |
| Disobedience |
| Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot |
| Fighting with My Family |
| The Front Runner |
| Gloria |
| The Incredibles 2 |
| Kursk |
| Leave No Trace |
| Lean on Pete |
| The Little Stranger |
| The Man Who Killed Don Quixote |
| Mary Poppins Returns |
| The Mercy |
| Old Man and the Gun |
| The Sisters Brothers |
| Smallfoot |
| A Star is Born |
| Suspiria |
| The True History of the Kelly Gang |
| Vita and Virginia |
| Where’d You Go, Bernadette |
| The White Crow |
| The Wife |
| Wildlife |
| The Women of Marwen |
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No changes in Original Screenplay this month. Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic feels like a very strong frontrunner. It also stands the best chance at Best Picture, Director and multiple acting nominations within this top 10. Unlike last year, which saw all five eventual Oscar nominees coming from Best Picture nominees, this year’s crop feels a bit more eclectic. Probably why I’ve stuck with a top 5 that feels likely to hit in some above the line categories.
Looking to the Other Contenders list we could see Mid 90s, The Hummingbird Project, A Quiet Place or Tully break in.
Here are my predictions for Best Original Screenplay as of April 19, 2018.
| 1. Untitled Dick Cheney biopic |
| 2. Roma |
| 3. Ad Astra |
| 4. Peterloo |
| 5. Destroyer |
| 6. Fast Color |
| 7. Eighth Grade |
| 8. Isle of Dogs |
| 9. The Favourite |
| 10. Hereditary |
| OTHER CONTENDERS |
| Bad Times at the El Royale |
| Ben is Back |
| Blindspotting |
| Bohemian Rhapsody |
| Burden |
| Colette |
| Come Sunday |
| Damsel |
| Everybody Knows |
| Georgetown |
| Green Book |
| The Happy Prince |
| Hearts Beat Loud |
| High Life |
| The Hummingbird Project |
| Loro |
| Mid 90s |
| The Nightingale |
| On the Basis of Sex |
| Operation Finale |
| A Quiet Place |
| Tully |
| Wendy |
| What They Had |
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (April)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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