2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (July) – Beautiful Boy Erased

Let’s here it for the boys. Both Boy Erased and Beautiful Boy rise in the ranks this month with Boy Erased entering the top 5.

Both films are aiming for top tier Oscar nominations but the adaptations of these true tales of gay conversion and drug addiction could really pull voters in. BlacKkKlansman, Widows and If Beale Street Could Talk stay put at #1-3, respectively, this month as does Jason Reitman’s The Front Runner.

Dropping are Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots and First Man. The Adapted Screenplay category, like last year, is quite rich with contenders and this early means it’s anyone’s game still.

Bird Box enters the Other Contenders chart as a film I’m keeping an eye on, especially with Hollywood legend Lisa Taback now in charge of Netflix’s Oscar campaigns.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for July 19, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

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As mentioned above, with Lisa Taback at Netflix this boosts the profile for Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma considerably. It moves up into the top 3.

Green Book also continues to rise as I feel Universal might have a stronger awards play with it than with its other fall release Welcome to Marwen. Peterloo and Ad Astra fall a bit but not enough to cause too much concern. A recent test screening of an early cut of Ad Astra showed it had a lot to finish in terms of visual effects but could pull a screenplay nomination for its director, James Gray (with Ethan Gross). We’ll have to wait and see how 20th Century Fox balances its campaigns for this, Widows and Bad Times at the El Royale.

First Reformed continues to slowly rise, possibly earning Paul Schrader his first Oscar nomination. Amazingly, Schrader did not get nominated for classics Raging Bull or Taxi Driver, Martin Scorsese films that earned Academy Award wins and nominations in many other categories.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Original Screenplay for July 19, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (July)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (July)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (July)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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