2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (May) – Ro mah ro-mah-mah Gaga oh-la-la!

Erik Anderson May 23, 2018

Yep, Lady Gaga has entered the Best Actress race.

Like her director and co-star, Lady Gaga is enjoying great word of mouth for her lead feature film debut in A Star Is Born. The pop superstar has enjoyed success in the music industry as one of the most popular artists of the 21st century and even her first foray into television acting netted her a Golden Globe for Best Actress (for American Horror Story: Hotel). Some may gawk at that win as the HFPA being populist and loving to award singer-turned-actors (like Madonna in Evita beating Frances McDormand in Fargo) but this feels different; like a true performance from a real performer (all vocals in the film were recorded live). Gaga enters the chart this month at #7 but could find herself top 5 very soon.

Elsewhere it’s much of the same, with the top 6 of Oscar winner and three-time nominee Viola Davis (Widows), three-time nominee Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots), Oscar nominee Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Oscar winner and four-time nominee Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) and SIX-time nominee Glenn Close (The Wife).

Renée Zellweger drops a bit for Judy (that could change if a strong indie studio picks it up) but there would be some fun meta irony if Zellweger, playing Judy Garland, misses out in favor of Lady Gaga, playing one of Judy Garland’s most revered roles.

I still have bumped Toni Collette up to the Next Up section for her June horror film Hereditary and I hope I’m not sleeping on her there. I know her performance is being given ‘best of career’ notices and that A24 is going to push hard for her but I’m still a bit hesitant to pop her in the top 10.

Here are my predictions for Best Actress as of May 23, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

1. Viola Davis – Widows

2. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots

3. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer

5. Glenn Close – The Wife

6. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex

7. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

8. Renée Zellweger – Judy

9. Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette

10. Kiki Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk

NEXT UP

Toni Collette – Hereditary

Poorna Jagannathan – Untitled Pippa Bianco aka Share

Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Fast Color

Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

OTHER CONTENDERS

Amy Adams – Backseat

Gemma Atherton – Vita and Virginia

Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns

Jessica Chastain – Woman Walks Ahead

Kiersey Clemons – Hearts Beat Loud

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Penélope Cruz – Everybody Knows

Elizabeth Debicki – Vita and Virginia

Judi Dench – Red Joan

Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade

Salma Hayek – The Hummingbird Project

Taraji P. Henson – The Best of Enemies

Isabelle Huppert – The Widow

Juli Jakab – Sunset

Dakota Johnson – Suspiria

Keira Knightley – The Aftermath

Keira Knightley – Colette

Kelly Macdonald – Puzzle

Danielle Macdonald – Dumplin’

Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace

Carey Mulligan – Wildlife

Michelle Pfeiffer – Where Is Kyra?

Rosamund Pike – A Private War

Florence Pugh – Fighting with My Family

Gina Rodríguez – Miss Bala

Kristen Stewart – JT Leroy

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Hilary Swank – What They Had

Charlize Theron – Tully

Rachel Weisz – Disobedience

Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (May)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.