2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (September)

Glenn Close still holds onto the #1 spot with The Wife but she’s going to be holding onto it for dear life as Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) is now nipping at her heels in the #2 slot. It’s a big move for Gaga but after stunning reviews from Venice and Toronto solidifying her as the real deal, the multi-Grammy winner is poised for a major upset.

The big surprise though is the rise of Yalitza Aparicio. Remember that name because the first-time actress from Alfonso Cuarón’s Golden Lion-winning ROMA is ready to crash this race in a major way. A stunning debut, backed by a studio (Netflix) that is flying her all over the world to every premiere, hers is the kind of debut that the Academy loves to honor with a nomination. See Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace), Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider). She’ll probably need a strong push from critics to get her there but that’s exactly what I see happening. 

With The Favourite women, whose category placements are still up in the air, it’s Olivia Colman that seems to be earning the whispers of the one Fox Searchlight will push lead. I’m still very hesitant about that and feel she makes more sense in supporting but for now I’ll go with what I’m hearing.

After hitting Sundance, Cannes, Toronto and NYFF, Carey Mulligan is looking for her second Oscar nomination and Wildlife could be her ticket there. A lot of other things have to fail for it fall into place but it could happen.

KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Viola Davis (Widows) hold on after strong world premieres at the Toronto International Film Festival.

Taking a bit of a fall are Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Nicole Kidman in Destroyer. Both are superb performances and are still very much in the running, it’s just a deep bench this year (which is a great thing). Saoirse Ronan continues to fall and is almost out of the top ten (she was at #2 at one point this year) as Mary Queen of Scots failed to show up at any of the major fall festivals. Same goes for her Focus Features competitor Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex. Both could end up debuting at AFI but will that be enough for the two previous Oscar nominees to topple already locked in contenders?

Here are my 2019 Oscar Predictions in Best Actress for September 20, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. Glenn Close – The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics)
2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
3. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
4. Viola Davis – Widows (20th Century Fox)
5. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA (Netflix)

6. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer (Annapurna)
7. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
8. Emma Stone – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
9. KiKi Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
10. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)

NEXT UP

Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns (Walt Disney)
Toni Collette – Hereditary (A24)
Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
Carey Mulligan – Wildlife (IFC Films)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Sandra Bullock – Bird Box (Netflix)
Penélope Cruz – Everybody Knows (Focus Features)
Regina Hall – Support the Girls (Magnolia)
Keira Knightley – Colette (Bleecker Street)
Chloë Grace Moretz – The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Rosamund Pike – A Private War (Aviron Pictures)
Julia Roberts – Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Hilary Swank – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
Charlize Theron – Tully (Focus Features)
Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)
Renée Zellweger – Judy (LD Entertainment)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (September)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (September)

2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (September)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (September)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (September)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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