2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

The top 4 of Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) and Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) stay locked in place from last month but previous top 5 contender Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) makes a big move back into the fold. 

Driver was a staple all summer and early fall for me and fell out of favor as other contenders rose. But then came the Gotham nominations where he earned a Best Actor mention (they don’t have supporting categories) and then the Spirit Awards last Friday where he was the sole nomination for his film (a big surprise). He earns a spot back in the top 5 this month. 

That bumps Daniel Kaluuya down and not simply because of Driver. His film Widows opened to just $12M this weekend, much lower than I expected and I wonder if that’s enough to keep him afloat (and other Widows contenders) this season. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) holds on at #6 but he’s a major possibility here.

Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Steve Carell (Vice) also take very small dips this month. The pair of December releases will need SAG and Golden Globe support to bring their supporting players back up. 

Lin Manuel-Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) is being pushed in lead by Disney, and he’ll surely get in there at the Golden Globes since they split Drama and Comedy/Musical, but I’m keeping his spot here warm for now just in case the Academy decides to see things differently. 

Russell Crowe (Boy Erased) enters the top 10 for the first time. The Oscar-winning actor is receiving his best reviews in years and if the film has enough weight with the Academy he could be brought in. 

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actor for November 19th, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Universal)
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
3. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
5. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

6. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther (Disney)
7. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (20th Century Fox)
8. Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
9. Steve Carell – Vice (Annapurna)
10. Russell Crowe – Boy Erased (Focus Features)

NEXT UP

Harry Belafonte – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Bradley Cooper – The Mule (Warner Bros)
Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (Disney) – pushed in lead
Sam Rockwell – Vice (Annapurna)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Hugh Grant – Paddington 2 (Warner Bros)
Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Russell Hornsby – The Hate U Give (20th Century Fox)
Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate (CBS Films)
Michael Peña – The Mule (Warner Bros)
Jonathan Pryce – The Wife (Sony Classics)
Michael Shannon – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
Sebastian Stan – Destroyer (Annapurna)