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The queens are at it again. This month, Olivia Colman’s Queen Anne in The Favourite takes over the #2 spot from Margot Robbie’s Queen Elizabeth I in Mary Queen of Scots. I feel that Fox Searchlight will make The Favourite their top Oscar priority this season (I have it up in all other major categories), so much so that Oscar winner Emma Stone (La La Land) makes a huge jump from #9 last month into the top 5 this month. Script reviews reveal a wickedly dark and funny and its entirely female-fronted cast could speak loudly to voters and audiences this fall.
Amy Adams remains atop the chart and I can’t see her moving from there. I think she will ride this all year long to finally earn her first Academy Award. It would take Backseat being a massive failure to topple her. Nicole Kidman also holds strong this month with Boy Erased. She is legitimately in contention for lead (in Destroyer) and supporting nominations this year on the heels of the most successful awards year of her career with HBO’s Big Little Lies.
Last month Janelle Monáe debuted with The Women of Marwen – that title has since been changed to Welcome to Marwen (and has its first trailer and poster). This month she’s out and Leslie Mann is swapped in for reportedly having the larger role. Oscar winner Sissy Spacek also falls down to the Other Contenders list for Old Man & the Gun. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) continues to quietly fall down the list and now rests just outside the top 5 at #6. I’m not entirely comfortable with her being that low, she has the book’s vital and visible role. Although I feel that the film will make an impact, more needs to be known about it (and seen) ahead of its likely fall festival run.
Claire Foy holds, despite the release of her film’s first trailer. She could be boosted by having this and The Girl in the Spider’s Web opening just one month after First Man. Oscar nominee Vera Farmiga stays in the top 10 with The Front Runner, which Sony just announced a nice awards release for (November 7); expect a trailer soon. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians) keeps her #10 spot this month.
With Where’d You Go, Bernadette dropping from the 2018 slate, Kristen Wiig goes with it. In her place comes Meryl Streep in Mary Poppins Returns. It’s going to be a very small part, but she has a song and that might be all the Academy needs from the three-time Oscar winner and 21-time nominee.
Oscar winner Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) makes her Nest Up chart debut with Oscar nominee Luca Guadagnino’s remake of Dario Argento’s 1977 horror masterpiece Suspiria. Although it seems the film could be far outside of the realm of the normal Oscar voter, her physically transformative role might be enough to snag support from the newer, more progressive members.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actress for June 20th, 2018.
Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut
| 1. Amy Adams – Backseat |
| 2. Olivia Colman – The Favourite |
| 3. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots |
| 4. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased |
| 5. Emma Stone – The Favourite |
| 6. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk |
| 7. Claire Foy – First Man |
| 8. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner |
| 9. Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns |
| 10. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians |
| NEXT UP |
| Cynthia Erivo – Widows |
| Leslie Mann – Welcome to Marwen |
| Tatiana Maslany – Destroyer |
| Ruth Negga – Ad Astra |
| Tilda Swinton – Suspiria |
| OTHER CONTENDERS |
| Jennifer Aniston – Dumplin’ |
| Kathy Bates – On the Basis of Sex |
| Annette Bening – Georgetown |
| Lucy Boynton – Bohemian Rhapsody |
| Linda Cardellini – Green Book |
| Blythe Danner – What They Had |
| Laura Dern – JT Leroy |
| Denise Gough – Colette |
| Salma Hayek – The Hummingbird Project |
| Lena Headey – Fighting with My Family |
| Teresa Mahoney – Peterloo |
| Rachel McAdams – Disobedience |
| Janelle Monáe – Welcome to Marwen |
| Alison Pill – Backseat |
| Julia Roberts – Ben is Back |
| Amy Ryan – Beautiful Boy |
| Anna Deavere Smith – Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
| Sissy Spacek – The Old Man & the Gun |
| Marina de Tavira – Roma |
| Katherine Waterston – Mid 90s |
| Jacki Weaver – Widows |
| Merritt Wever – Welcome to Marwen |
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (June)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (June)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (June)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (June)
2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (June)
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