Tue. Oct 20th, 2020

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: BEST PICTURE (December)

The last official Best Picture Oscar predictions of the year (plus a Frontrunner Friday next week) and where do we stand? Without a true frontrunner, that’s where. And it’s WILD.

As I discussed in Best Director, I think there is a distinct race between Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood both there and here in Best Picture. It seems weird to think the two films would split the categories but I’m calling it for December anyway. I give Once Upon a Time in Hollywood the edge in Best Picture by virtue of the fact that no non-English language film has ever won. Doesn’t mean it can’t, just that it hasn’t…yet.

Last year, many of us (myself included) ignored the Producers Guild when it came to Green Book vs Roma. This year, I think PGA is going to be even more crucial to pay attention to, I’ve learned my lesson. I think whoever wins that will win Best Picture and I’m leaning to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood there as well. PGA nominations don’t come out until January 7th but it’s not like it’s not getting in. The big, wonderful wrench thrown into this top two is that they both made it into the Screen Actors Guild Cast nominees. Parasite! In SAG Cast! That’s huge. It’s the first non-English language film to make it there since 1998’s Life Is Beautiful. That film did very well with Oscar nominations and won three, including Foreign Language Film (as it was called then) but it’s the very existence of that category that could hobble Parasite and relocate to a win there only. But I figure, it’s gotta change at some point, right?

Oscar Podcast #77: Discussing the Oscar Shortlists with guest Will Mavity

There’s actually some considerable movement this month in the top 10 based on the Golden Globe, SAG and Critics Choice nominations, critics awards and box office. It’s mixed bag; rises for SAG hit Bombshell and The Irishman, box office hit Joker and then falls for The Farewell, which has underperformed so far and The Two Popes, which, despite that surprise Best Drama Globe nom, hasn’t made much of a dent anywhere else. The biggest move though is Marriage Story out of the top spot and down to #3. It might even be #4. Noah Baumbach missing Best Director at the Globes was a pretty big ding, not to mention missing that SAG Cast nom too (although less so as it didn’t hurt Green Book or The Shape of Water to miss there).

Little Women remains a mystery as a Christmas release that was definitely underseen during guild and industry nomination periods but could it be this year’s Phantom Thread and just blow up at the Oscars? If there’s any film that fits that mold and could, that would be it.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Best Picture for December 20, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
2. Parasite (Neon)
3. Marriage Story (Netflix)
4. The Irishman (Netflix)
5. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
6. 1917 (Universal)
7. Joker (Warner Bros)
8. Ford v. Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
9. Bombshell (Lionsgate)
10. The Farewell (A24)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

Hustlers (STX Entertainment)
Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Us (Universal)

WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by film)

Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
Judy (Roadside Attractions)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)

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