2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: FILM EDITING & CINEMATOGRAPHY (October)

Some movement in Film Editing this month with James Mangold’s race car drama Ford v Ferrari moving into the pole position. It’s a tough call as it pushes 3-time Oscar winner Thelma Schoonmaker down one for The Irishman. This is a multi-layered conundrum: my thoughts on The Irishman in the Oscar race are that it feels like a film that hit double digit nominations but not win anything. In the case of FvF, the film has three editors and and there is plenty of precedent for a film to win three (or more) cutters to win (Titanic, The Right Stuff). In fact, the best example in FvF‘s favor would be 1966’s Grand Prix, which had four. That racing film won Film Editing (along with both Sound awards), its only nominations.

What I’m going to be looking out for though is 1917, edited by Oscar winner Lee Smith (Dunkirk). While there is definitely history to back him being left off the list (Best Picture winner Birdman was snubbed for a similar ‘no cut’ editing look), I think Universal is starting out smart, releasing featurettes that will explore and explain the complicated and fascinating process of telling a ‘real time’ story. It’s all going to depend on the branch itself; they usually love showy editing or editing from the eventual BP winner (unless they don’t, like Birdman).

Parasite enters the list for the first time and it’s definitely one to keep an eye out for. It’s potential for broad branch support could find the darkly comic thriller landing all over the place.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Film Editing for October 14, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Ford v. Ferrari (Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker, Dirk Westervelt) – 20th Century Fox
2. The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker) – Netflix
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin) – Sony/Columbia
4. Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame) – Netflix
5. 1917 (Lee Smith) – Universal

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

Ad Astra (John Axelrad, Lee Haugen) – 20th Century Fox
The Aeronauts (Mark Eckersley) – Amazon
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles) – Fox Searchlight
Parasite (Jinmo Yang) – Neon
Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker (Maryann Brandon, Stefan Grube) – Disney

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Anne McCabe) – Sony/TriStar
Bombshell (John Poll) – Lionsgate
Dark Waters (TBD) – Focus Features
The Farewell (Matthew Friedman, Michael Taylor) – A24
Harriet (Wyatt Smith) – Focus Features
Knives Out (Bob Ducsay) – Lionsgate
Little Women (Nick Houy) – Sony/Columbia
Motherless Brooklyn (Joe Klotz) – Warner Bros
Rocketman (Chris Dickens) – Paramount
The Two Popes (Fernando Stutz) – Netflix
Uncut Gems (TBD) – A24
Us (Nicholas Monsour) – Universal
Waves (Isaac Hagy, Trey Edward Shults) – A24

As dull as it may seem, I have no changes in Cinematography for the month. Everything is the same and in the same spot. There’s always a sense of dread when something feels like this in October but this is a very possible (likely?) top five. I’ve learned to never get this comfortable this early so, that being said, the strength of Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story across all branches, for example, could easily propel one or both of them into the top five at the expense of something like The Lighthouse or Ford v Ferrari.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Cinematography for October 14, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. 1917 (Roger Deakins) – Universal
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson) – Sony/Columbia
3. The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto) – Netflix
4. Ford v. Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael) – 20th Century Fox
5. The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke) – A24

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema) – 20th Century Fox
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer) – Fox Searchlight
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai Mălaimare Jr.) – Fox Searchlight
Marriage Story (Robbie Ryan) – Netflix
The Two Popes (César Charlone) – Netflix

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

The Aeronauts (George Steel) – Amazon
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Jody Lee Lipes) – Sony/Tri-Star
Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd) – Lionsgate
Dark Waters (Ed Lachman) – Focus Features
The Farewell (Anna Francesa Solano) – A24
Harriet (John Toll) – Focus Features
Joker (Lawrence Sher) – Warner Bros
Just Mercy (Brett Pawlak) – Warner Bros
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Adam Newport-Berra) – A24
Little Women (Yorick Le Saux) – Sony/Columbia
The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel) – Disney
Motherless Brooklyn (Dick Pope) – Warner Bros
Parasite (Hong Kyung-pyo) – Neon
Seberg (Rachel Morrison) – Amazon
Star Wars Episode 9: The Rise of Skywalker (Dan Mindel) – Disney
Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji) – A24
Waves (Drew Daniels) – A24