2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July)

Although I still think if Brad Pitt goes supporting for Sony/Columbia’s Tarantino flick Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood that he’s got this in the bag, I’m starting to look keenly in the direction of four-time Oscar nominee Willem Dafoe.

Since his breakthrough performance, and first nomination, for 1986’s Platoon, Dafoe has been one of the most consistent yet most adventurous actors working in Hollywood. Whether he’s playing huge as Nosferatu for Shadow of the Vampire or quiet and measured as he does in The Florida Project, Dafoe has reach and he has range. With two Oscar nominations in a row, including beating out some heavy favorites last season for his little-seen At Eternity’s Gate, he’s got a resume for not just a nomination for possibly for an upset. The trouble is…for what film? For 2019, Dafoe has no less than three films in contention, all presumably in supporting. A24’s The Lighthouse, Warner Bros.’ Motherless Brooklyn and Netflix’s The Last Thing He Wanted will all see fall releases but where will his golden ticket land? With The Lighthouse the only seen and screened so far (it hit Cannes to raves) so for the moment I’m putting my chips there and Dafoe finds himself in the top for the month.

That bumps down Taika Waititi, for his self-directed performance as Adolf Hitler in Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight). He’s still a very viable contender as long as the film is. To date, no filmmaker has directed themselves to a Supporting Actor nomination, although many have found themselves in Best Actor. There’s always a first for everything, especially with the Oscars, and as each year passes, history is rewritten. Waititi missing might actually make room for Academy Award winner Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), who’s on a bit of an Oscar hot streak.

The new discovery that Academy Award nominee Alan Alda (The Aviator) is in the new Noah Baumbach (which I’ve learned is possibly titled Marriage Story) from Netflix, puts him in contention. Also added to Other Contenders this month are Bill Pullman and Academy Award winner Tim Robbins (Mystic River) for the new Todd Hayes for Focus Features, tentatively titled Dry Run.

New to the chart is a section called Lead or Supporting, which gives us an idea of the number of performances, seen or unseen, that could potentially go either way depending on how the studio, and actor, wants to position them. They include frontrunners Brad Pitt, Tom Hanks, Christian Bale and Willem Dafoe. Any movement into Best Actor for any of them changes the game for everyone.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actor for July 17, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman (Netflix)
3. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/Columbia)
4. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
5. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)

NEXT UP (alphabetical)

Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
Anthony Hopkins – The Pope (Netflix)
John Lithgow – Untitled Roger Ailes aka Fair and Balanced (Lionsgate)
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (Netflix)
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical)

Alan Alda – Untitled Noah Baumbach aka Marriage Story (Netflix)
Antonio Banderas – The Laundromat (Netflix)
Jamie Bell – Rocketman (Paramount)
Sterling K. Brown – Waves (A24)
Peter Capaldi – The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Timothée Chalamet – The French Dispatch (TBD)
Timothée Chalamet – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
Willem Dafoe – The Last Thing He Wanted (Netflix)
Willem Dafoe – Motherless Brooklyn (Warner Bros)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Hugh Laurie – The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Ray Liotta – Untitled Noah Baumbach aka Marriage Story (Netflix)
Anthony Mackie – Against All Enemies (Amazon)
Jonathan Majors – The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Ian McKellen – Cats (Universal)
Leslie Odom, Jr. – Harriet (Focus Features)
Gary Oldman – The Laundromat (Netflix)
Timothy Olyphant – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
Al Pacino – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse (A24)
Bill Pullman – Untitled Todd Hayes aka Dry Run (Focus Features)
Tim Robbins – Untitled Todd Hayes aka Dry Run (Focus Features)
Sam Rockwell – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Wesley Snipes – Dolemite is My Name (Netflix)
Lakeith Stanfield – Uncut Gems (A24)
David Strathairn – Nomadland (Fox Searchlight)
Ben Whishaw – The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Jeffrey Wright – The Goldfinch (Amazon/Warner Bros)

LEAD OR SUPPORTING?

Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Sterling K. Brown – Waves (A24)
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/Columbia)
Lucas Hedges – Waves (A24)
Anthony Hopkins – The Pope (Netflix)
Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse (A24)
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/Columbia)