Throw everything you think you know about how BAFTA votes right out the window. This year, BAFTA chucked its old voting formats right in the bin and started brand new. After years of questionable nominations that lacked diversity and culminating in their 2019 awards having zero people of color in the acting categories but making room for two Margot Robbie nominations in one category, the org went to work to reshape and revitalize itself from the ground up and the top down.
At least 1,000 new voting members will be added over the next two years. There will be a strong focus on recruiting from under-represented groups with a ‘A Future Membership Group’ comprised of current BAFTA members from a variety of backgrounds. This group will be focused solely on identifying future members from underrepresented groups.
Voting itself received a huge overhaul. In order to align the acting category to all other craft categories, voting in the four acting categories was moved to Chapter voting (by branch, like the Oscars) and bringing back the longlists.
In round one, the acting chapter ranked their top 15, with the top 12 longlisted. A specially convened longlisting jury will select the final three based on the performances placed 13-22 of the chapter vote to ensure intersectional diversity on the acting longlists.
In round two, a small nominating jury of 7-12 people, of which only 50% needed to be BAFTA members, chose six nominees from the 15 longlisted performances (this is an increase from five from previous years). The increase from five to six was implemented to allow for a broader representation in nominees.
Similarly, the directing chapter ranked the top 20 to create the longlist. The top eight female and top eight male directors progressed directly to the longlist. A specially convened longlisting jury then selected the final four directors – two female and two male (from the next 10 ranked respectively) – for a final longlist of 20. A nominating jury then selected the top six directors to be nominated.
In round three of all of these categories, all BAFTA members voted to choose the winners from the final nominations set by the juries and chapters.
What this this was gave us the wildest set of nominees we’ve seen from BAFTA in some time, with seemingly locked frontrunners snubbed and new voices and faces recognized. The Best Film category, which stayed the same showed exactly how big the variance was with a largely traditional-looking top 5 with one exception. The Mauritanian over Mank or Minari was definitely seen as a surprise, even by BAFTA standards.
Will we see the acting categories go 3/4 with the Screen Actors Guild, who just announced last weekend? SAG winner Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) is not nominated but her fellow Oscar nominees Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) are. Best Actress has so far gone to a different person for each precursor and without Davis here BAFTA will give us a fourth. But don’t assume it will be one of those two just yet, we could see BAFTA membership create a British wave and go for Bukky Bukray, who’s film Rocks did very well here, with seven nominations. Speaking of, I think Supporting Actress, which features two Oscar nominees – Maria Bakalova and SAG winner Youn Yuh-jung – will find steep competition from Kosar Ali, who I’m predicting to upset. SAG has made for one of the most exciting races in decades, from an Oscar prognosticator and watcher’s point of view and BAFTA could make it even wilder. This is also kind of the last stand for Anthony Hopkins (The Father). While it seems a longshot to defeat Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Hopkins and his film could be embraced by their brethren in multiple categories where it’s competitive: Editing, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design. Not to mention Outstanding British Film.
So how will the overall voting body react to the juried nominations that it’s clear would likely not have made it in otherwise? Do the directing and acting nominations that Minari got help it when the film couldn’t pull off a Best Picture nomination? Or will there be a rebuke by the membership for the changes imposed on them and vote where they can for films they wanted to see more of, like Promising Young Woman or The Trial of the Chicago 7? It’s impossible to say but it’s going to make looking back on this year a fascinating one because BAFTA will either embrace or push back on these changes. Like the Oscars, these awards bodies aren’t fans of being told how to vote but this has been a year of seismic change on every level and it might be enough to inspire lasting and real change.
Where I think we can look to BAFTA for some crystal ball possibilities for the Oscars will be in the below the line categories where films are competing against each other with both awards bodies. Film Editing, which is a truly exciting four-way fight between The Father, Nomadland, Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7, will be one to watch. I’m leaning Sound of Metal here, which is where 2014’s Whiplash made its big move to Oscar success. The Visual Effects Society went for The Midnight Sky over Tenet but I think it will be flipped here, despite the general underperformance of both films. Makeup and Hair will be another fun fight, in what I think is a very close race, between double MUAH winner Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Hillbilly Elegy and MUAH winner Pinocchio. I feel like the common sense pick is Ma Rainey but this could be where Pinocchio’s phenomenal prosthetic work takes over and becomes the Oscar dark horse. Costume Design is another place for Ma Rainey to potentially succeed but I think, after six nominations, Alexandra Byrne might finally claim a mask, for Emma. A win for Ma Rainey‘s Ann Roth would be something for the 89-year old, her first since 1975’s The Day of the Locust.
Film Not in the English Language could go three ways: the seeming frontrunner Another Round, which also made it into Director, Actor and Original Screenplay; Minari, a directing and acting nominee or Quo Vadis, Aida?, also a directing nominee. Only Round and Aida are Oscar-nominated so logic would say it’s one of those two (although BAFTA has deviated from Oscar nominees here before) but Minari has also won a healthy amount of these wins, including the Golden Globe over Another Round. I’m going with Another Round on the strength of the film in its other categories but a win for Minari, even after failing to even make the Best Film longlist, wouldn’t surprise me.
The 2021 EE BAFTA awards ceremony will be split over two nights. British radio and television presenter Clara Amfo will host the EE BAFTA Film Awards Opening Night, as it will be called, on Saturday April 10, and will air live on BBC Two. Amfo will be joined by panel of yet-be-announced guests from the Royal Albert Hall. A total of eight BAFTA winners will be revealed that evening alongside a presentation of the nominated films, including behind-the-scenes footage highlighting the creative process. The Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema award will be the only in-person awards moment of the night. For night two, Amfo will interview BAFTA presenters live from the Royal Albert Hall, with Edith Bowman and Dermot O’Leary taking co-host duties the main BAFTA show, which will air on BBC One. The remaining 17 awards will be handed out here, including the public-voted Rising Star Award and the BAFTA fellowship.
Here are my predictions for the 2021 EE BAFTA Film Awards with one to watch out for in each category.
BEST FILM
Predicted winner: NOMADLAND – Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
Watch out for: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Josey McNamara
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
Predicted winner: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Emerald Fennell, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Josey McNamara
Watch out for: THE FATHER – Florian Zeller, Philippe Carcassone, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christopher Hampton
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Predicted winner: SAINT MAUD – Rose Glass (Writer/Director), Oliver Kassman (Producer) [also produced by Andrea Cornwell]
Watch out for: ROCKS – Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson (Writers)
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Predicted winner: ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg, Kasper Dissing, Sisse Graum Jørgensen
Watch out for: MINARI – Lee Isaac Chung, Christina Oh
DOCUMENTARY
Predicted winner: MY OCTOPUS TEACHER – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, Craig Foster
Watch out for: COLLECTIVE – Alexander Nanau
ANIMATED FILM
Predicted winner: SOUL – Pete Docter, Dana Murray
Watch out for: WOLFWALKERS – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young
DIRECTOR
Predicted winner: NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao
Watch out for: ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted winner: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Emerald Fennell
Watch out for: ROCKS – Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted winner: THE FATHER – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
Watch out for: NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao
LEADING ACTRESS
Predicted winner: FRANCES McDORMAND – Nomadland
Watch out for: BUKKY BAKRAY – Rocks
LEADING ACTOR
Predicted winner: CHADWICK BOSEMAN – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Watch out for: ANTHONY HOPKINS – The Father
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted winner: KOSAR ALI – Rocks
Watch out for: MARIA BAKALOVA – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted winner: DANIEL KALUUYA – Judas and the Black Messiah
Watch out for: PAUL RACI – Sound of Metal
ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted winner: SOUL – Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Watch out for: MANK – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
CASTING
Predicted winner: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN Lindsay Graham Ahanonu, Mary Vernieu
Watch out for: ROCKS – Lucy Pardee
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted winner: NOMADLAND – Joshua James Richards
Watch out for: MANK – Erik Messerschmidt
EDITING
Predicted winner: SOUND OF METAL – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Watch out for: THE FATHER – Yorgos Lamprinos
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted winner: MANK – Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale
Watch out for: THE FATHER – Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone
COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted winner: EMMA. – Alexandra Byrne
Watch out for: MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Ann Roth
MAKE UP & HAIR
Predicted winner: PINOCCHIO – Dalia Colli, Mark Coulier, Francesco Pegoretti
Watch out for: MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Matiki Anoff, Larry M. Cherry, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal
SOUND
Predicted winner: SOUND OF METAL – Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Phillip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, Michelle Couttolenc
Watch out for: SOUL – Coya Elliott, Ren Klyce, David Parker
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted winner: TENET – Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley
Watch out for: THE MIDNIGHT SKY – Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Max Solomon, David Watkins
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
Predicted winner: THE SONG OF A LOST BOY – Daniel Quirke, Jamie MacDonald, Brid Arnstein
Watch out for: THE FIRE NEXT TIME – Renaldho Pelle, Yanling Wang, Kerry Jade Kolbe
BRITISH SHORT FILM
Predicted winner: THE PRESENT – Farah Nabulsi
Watch out for: LUCKY BREAK – John Addis, Rami Sarras Pantoja
EE RISING STAR AWARD
Predicted winner: KINGSLEY BEN-ADIR
Watch out for: CONRAD KHAN
Photo credit: Thomas Alexander
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