2021 Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Like many of this year’s Emmy categories, we’re going to get a batch of primarily brand new players, whether it’s their first season or the field opening up to finally let them in, you can expect the class of 2021 to look almost nothing like 2020.

It’s actually 2019 that we could see those familiar Emmy names return to the fold. Of last year’s eight nominees, only Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid’s Tale) returns as a contender this year. Whitford won the Guest Actor Emmy in 2019. Chris Sullivan (This Is Us) was nominated in this category in 2019. Giancarlo Esposito (The Mandalorian) was nominated in Guest for The Mandalorian last year but was upped to Supporting for season two.

Bridgerton was a breakout hit for Netflix and the most likely benefactor in supporting actor will be the handsome and rakish Jonathan Bailey. We also have the return of In Treatment, a show that was bathed in Emmy acting nominations (and some wins) when it first aired on HBO with Gabriel Byrne as the show’s therapist lead. This year, the best bets lie for John Benjamin Hickey and Anthony Ramos with both having a path to get in.

Two actors find themselves in the fourth and fifth seasons of their shows and both looking for their first nominations. Not only that, they both have also been bumped from previous pushes in lead down to supporting. I’m talking about Tobias Menzies in The Crown and Justin Hartley in This Is Us. For Menzies, playing Prince Philip, he was more heavily featured in season three but in season four took a backseat to his onscreen son Josh O’Connor, playing Prince Charles in the very Charles and Diana heavy season. For Hartley, his Kevin Pearson has battled addiction, turmoil with his brother (played by Emmy winner Sterling K. Brown) and a shocking marital twist in season five. But despite some very baity narratives and performances, Hartley has yet to click with Emmy voters. He’ll face stiff competition from his own co-stars, Chris Sullivan and Asante Blackk, both of whom have received Emmy nominations before. In a group of eight as it is this year and in such an open field, this is Hartley’s best chance yet. But, if he can’t make it in this year, he probably never will. So far, he’s something of a Courteney Cox of This Is Us; one of the only main cast members to not earn a Primetime Emmy nom yet, the other being Susan Kelechi Watson.

Right now, my money’s on Michael K. Williams (Lovecraft Country) to not only get a nomination but to pull out a win once he does. If he does, it would be an historic win: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series has never had a Black winner, the only Emmy acting category to date that hasn’t. This would be Williams’ fifth nomination and his performance as Montrose, who struggles with being Black and gay in 1950s Chicago while trying to mend his relationship with his son Atticus (Jonathan Majors), received some of the best notices of the season. 

Here are my predictions for Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.

1. Michael K. Williams – Lovecraft Country (HBO)

2. Bradley Whitford – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

3. Giancarlo Esposito – The Mandalorian (Disney+)

4. Tobias Menzies – The Crown (Netflix)

5. Jonathan Bailey – Bridgerton (Netflix)

6. John Benjamin Hickey – In Treatment (HBO)

7. Justin Hartley – This Is Us (NBC)

8. Anthony Ramos – In Treatment (HBO)

Then: Angel Bismark Curiel – Pose (FX), Asante Blackk – This Is Us (NBC), Daniel Brühl – Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+), O-T Fagbenle – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu), John Lithgow – Perry Mason (HBO), Chris Sullivan – This Is Us (NBC)

Photo: Eli Joshua Ade/HBO