2021 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (December)

Someone’s on the mooove.

I regret nothing. First Cow enters the top 5 this month on the strength of its New York Film Critics Circle win for Best Film. What’s the connection, you ask? In the 86-year history of the NYFCC, the Best Film winner has always been nominated for at least one Oscar. For Kelly Reichardt’s somber tale of the American Frontier, adapted screenplay is probably its best shot, especially if the writer’s branch knows what a feat this adaptation is.

Elsewhere, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom rises as it has turned into quite the favorite in multiple categories with the first critics’ awards, both in wins and nominations. It’s still hard to imagine three of the five nominees coming from play adaptations but how do you say no to The Father or One Night in Miami?

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for December.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

6. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman (based on the novel “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” by Iain Reid)

8. Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer (based on characters created by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Mazer and Todd Phillips)

9. Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Kata Wéber (based on the play “Pieces of a Woman”)

10. The White Tiger (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel “The White Tiger” by Aravind Adiga)

Other Contenders (alphabetical)

Cherry (Apple TV+)
Angela Otstot, Jessica Goldberg (based on “Cherry” by Nico Walker)

French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Patrick deWitt (based on the novel “French Exit” by Patrick deWitt)

Emma. (Focus Features)
Eleanor Catton (based on the book “Emma” by Jane Austen)

Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Vanessa Taylor (based on the novel “Hillbilly Elegy” by J.D. Vance)

The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Michael Bronner (based on the novel “Guantanamo Diary” by Mohamedou Ould Salahi)

The Mauritanian (STX Entertainment)
Mark L. Smith (based on the novel “Good Morning, Midnight” by Lily Brooks-Dalton)

The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci (based on “David Copperfield” by Charles Dickens)

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
Suzan-Lori Parks (based on “Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs” by Johann Hari)

First Cow image courtesy of A24

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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