2021 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (October)

Very little movement this month in Adapted Screenplay, which feels surprisingly solid with this top five. But, it’s still early, all things considered.

Netflix’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom moves up one (and subsequently, Universal’s News of the World moves down one). Amazon’s One Night in Miami… and Sony Classics’ The Father will probably wrestle with the #2 and #3 spots all season and, interestingly enough, are both plays brought to the screen by their own playwrights. Despite their dialogue-heavy scripts, I still expect Searchlight Pictures’ quiet and contemplative Nomadland to remain on top.

The only new entry this month is Cherry from Apple TV+.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for October.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)

Other Contenders (alphabetical)

Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer (based on characters created by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Mazer and Todd Phillips)

Cherry (Apple TV+)
Angela Otstot, Jessica Goldberg (based on “Cherry” by Nico Walker)

First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Patrick deWitt (based on the novel “French Exit” by Patrick deWitt)

Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Vanessa Taylor (based on the novel “Hillbilly Elegy” by J.D. Vance)

I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman (based on the novel “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” by Iain Reid)

The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Mark L. Smith (based on the novel “Good Morning, Midnight” by Lily Brooks-Dalton)

The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci (based on “David Copperfield” by Charles Dickens)

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
Suzan-Lori Parks (based on “Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs” by Johann Hari)

The White Tiger (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel “The White Tiger” by Aravind Adiga)