2022 BAFTA predictions: Where the power will lie with ‘Belfast’ or the ‘Dog’

For the second year, BAFTA threw us for a loop with wild nominations in the sophomore season of their newly installed voting juries and rules that not only began harking back to the BAFTA of yore (when they were after the Oscars) but gave us a Best Actress lineup that went 0/5 with Oscar, a feat that hasn’t happened in nearly 35 years.

In the acting categories, the top 2 vote getters in the first round are automatic nominees. Then, a jury of 7-12 people select the remaining four to give us our six nominations. Best Actress gave us the biggest snubs on BAFTA nomination morning as the prevailing thought was that Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) were the most likely top 2 but voters said no, as both missed out on even a nomination in favor of Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), BIFA winner Joanna Scanlan (After Love), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) and Tessa Thompson (Passing). Reinsve was the only non-English language performance on the 60-name shortlist; her film also made the cut for Film Not in the English Language. For Lady Gaga, a previous BAFTA winner and nominee in this category for 2018’s A Star Is Born, she was the only lead actress this season to have hit all four major precursors: Golden Globe, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA. Ultimately, she fell short as Oscar did not come knocking.

Denis Villeneuve’s Dune led the pack with 11 (the only film to earn double digits), despite Villeneuve himself missing out on a directing nod, just as he did when Oscar nominations were announced. The Power of the Dog was next with 8 nominations, Belfast earned six and the trio of Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die and West Side Story grabbed five apiece. The battle between Belfast and The Power of the Dog will come to a head here (as it will at PGA next week) but BAFTA Best Film and Oscar’s Best Picture has had a chilly relationship recently. While Nomadland crossed over, the last time the two matched up was 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, which ended a 6-year run of the two awards bodies aligning.

While chapters and juries made up the longlists and nominees (except for Best Film), all current members can vote for the winners. Last year saw all four eventual acting Oscar winners triumph here first and while we won’t see that happen again this year thanks to Best Actress, there is a realistic shot for it to happen in the other three acting categories, there is a lot of room for a shakeup.

Here are my official BAFTA winner and runner-up predictions. The 2022 BAFTA Awards will be held in a live, in-person ceremony at the Royal Albert Hall in London on March 13 and hosted by Rebel Wilson.

Best Film

Predicted runner-up: Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
Predicted winner: The Power of the Dog

Director

After Love – Aleem Khan
Drive My Car – Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
Happening – Audrey Diwan
Predicted runner-up: Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
Predicted winner: The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion
Titane – Julia Ducournau

Leading Actress

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones – CODA
Predicted runner-up: Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World
Predicted winner: Joanna Scanlan – After Love
Tessa Thompson – Passing

Leading Actor

Adeel Akhtar – Ali & Ava
Mahershala Ali – Swan Song
Predicted winner: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Stephen Graham – Boiling Point
Predicted runner-up: Will Smith – King Richard

Supporting Actress

Caitríona Balfe – Belfast
Predicted runner-up: Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Predicted winner: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Ann Dowd – Mass
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Ruth Negga – Passing

Supporting Actor

Mike Faist – West Side Story
Predicted runner-up: Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Woody Norman – C’mon C’mon
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Predicted winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Original Screenplay

Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin
Predicted winner: Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay
King Richard – Zach Baylin
Predicted runner-up: Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson

Adapted Screenplay

CODA – Siân Heder
Drive My Car – Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
Dune – Denis Villeneuve
Predicted runner-up: The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal
Predicted winner: The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion

Outstanding British Film

Predicted runner-up: After Love
Ali & Ava
Predicted winner: Belfast
Boiling Point
Cyrano
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
House of Gucci
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die
Passing

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Predicted winner: After Love – Aleem Khan (Writer/Director)
Predicted runner-up: Boiling Point – James Cummings (Writer), Hester Ruoff (Producer) [also written by Philip Barantini and Produced by Bart Ruspoli]
The Harder They Fall – Jeymes Samuel (Writer/director) [also written by Boaz Yakin]
Keyboard Fantasies – Posy Dixon (Writer/Director), Liv Proctor (Producer)
Passing – Rebecca Hall (Writer/Director)

Film Not in the English Language

Predicted winner: Drive My Car – Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Teruhisa Yamamoto
The Hand of God – Paolo Sorrentino, Lorenzo Mieli
Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
Petite Maman – Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur
Predicted runner-up: The Worst Person in the World – Joachim Trier, Thomas Robsahm

Documentary

Becoming Cousteau – Liz Garbus, Dan Cogan
Cow – Andrea Arnold, Kat Mansoor
Predicted winner: Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen. Monica Hellström
The Rescue – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, John Battsek, P. J. Van Sandwijk
Predicted runner-up: Summer of Soul (or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, David Dinerstein, Robert Fyvolent, Joseph Patel

Animated Film

Predicted winner: Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, Clarke Spencer
Predicted runner-up: Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström
Luca – Enrico Casarosa, Andrea Warren
The Mitchells Vs the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller

Original Score

Being the Ricardos – Daniel Pemberton
Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Predicted winner: Dune – Hans Zimmer
The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat
Predicted runner-up: The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

Casting

Boiling Point – Carolyn Mcleod
Dune – Francine Maisler
The Hand of God – Massimo Appolloni, Annamaria Sambucco
Predicted winner: King Richard – Rich Delia, Avy Kaufman
Predicted runner-up: West Side Story – Cindy Tolan

Cinematography

Predicted winner: Dune – Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
No Time to Die – Linus Sandgren
Predicted runner-up: The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel

Editing

Belfast – Úna Ní Dhonghaíle
Predicted winner: Dune – Joe Walker
Licorice Pizza – Andy Jurgensen
Predicted runner-up: No Time to Die – Tom Cross, Elliot Graham
Summer of Soul (or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) – Joshua L. Pearson

Production Design

Cyrano – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
Predicted winner: Dune – Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
The French Dispatch – Adam Stockhausen, Rena Deangelo
Predicted runner-up: Nightmare Alley – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
West Side Story – Adam Stockhausen, Rena Deangelo

Costume Design

Predicted winner: Cruella – Jenny Beavan
Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini
Predicted runner-up: Dune – Robert Morgan, Jacqueline West
The French Dispatch – Milena Canonero
Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira

Make Up & Hair

Predicted winner: Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne
Cyrano – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Siân Miller
Predicted runner-up: Dune – Love Larson, Donald Mowat
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
House of Gucci – Frederic Aspiras, Jane Carboni, Giuliano Mariana, Sarah Nicole Tanno

Sound

Predicted winner: Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Doug Hemphill, Theo Green, Ron Bartlett
Last Night in Soho – Colin Nicolson, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin, Dan Morgan
Predicted runner-up: No Time to Die – James Harrison, Simon Hayes, Paul Massey, Oliver Tarney, Mark Taylor
A Quiet Place Part II – Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky, Brandon Proctor, Ethan Van Der Ryn
West Side Story – Brian Chumney, Tod Maitland, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom

Special Visual Effects

Predicted winner: Dune – Brian Connor, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Gerd Nefzer
Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Brian Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Daniel Sudick
Ghostbusters: Afterlife – Aharon Bourland, Sheena Duggal, Pier Lefebvre, Alessandro Ongaro
The Matrix Resurrections – Tom Debenham, Hew J Evans, Dan Glass, J. D. Schwaim
Predicted runner-up: No Time to Die – Mark Bokowski, Chris Corbould, Joel Green, Charlie Noble

British Short Animation

Predicted winner: Affairs of the Art – Joanna Quinn, Les Mills
Predicted runner-up: Do Not Feed the Pigeons – Jordi Morera
Night of the Living Dread – Ida Melum, Danielle Goff, Laura Jayne Tunbridge, Hannah Kelso

British Short Film

Predicted winner: The Black Cop – Cherish Oteka
Femme – Sam H. Freeman, Ng Choon Ping, Sam Ritzenberg, Hayley Williams
The Palace – Jo Prichard
Stuffed – Theo Rhys, Joss Holden-rea
Predicted runner-up: Three Meetings of the Extraordinary Committee – Michael Woodward, Max Barron, Daniel Wheldon

EE Rising Star Award (Voted for by the Public)

Predicted winner: Ariana DeBose
Harris Dickinson
Lashana Lynch
Millicent Simmonds
Predicted runner-up: Kodi Smit-McPhee