2022 British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) Nomination Predictions
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) are in their second year of dramatically different voting for its longlists and nominees, making predictions a difficult – but fun – task as these juries of 7-12 people gave us some wild and bracing choices last year, including shocking snubs of Gary Oldman, Carey Mulligan, Viola Davis and Olivia Colman in the acting categories. How will this new voting structure impact this year’s nominees and what have we learned from last year’s results.
In 2020, BAFTA established its most sweeping overhaul of its awards in decades, including increasing membership diversity by over 1,000 after backlash of a consistent lack of diversity among its nominations.
On top of the voting structure changes from last year (chapter voting for most categories then small juried voting for the actual nominees in an effort to provide a more diverse lineup) is a new one this year, decidedly in response to those big snubs last year. This year, the top two vote getters in the acting categories are automatically in and the juries then vote for the four performances that will be nominated alongside them. While some categories might feel like it’s easy to identify who the top two are (probably Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield in lead actor, Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman in lead actress) nothing is certain and we could see these juries continue their focus started last year and give us some inspired choices, even if it’s at the risk of traditional predicting and using BAFTA as a proper precursor.
I think we’ll see some similarities to last year where the Best Film category is voted on by all members in all rounds (longlist, nominations, winners). This year’s longlist lineup is about as Oscar-y and US-influenced as they’ve ever been at BAFTA, even more than last year. No non-English language films, no major British-only contenders. A lineup of five made up of Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story makes the most sense with possibly CODA, Don’t Look Up or No Time to Die making a play. Chapter-voted below the line categories will look more traditional as well.
The acting categories where we’ll see some big swings and differences than the precursors we’ve had so far from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild. Expect to see BIFA winners and nominees like Stephen Graham (Boiling Point), Joanna Scanlan (After Love) and more show up. This could also be a history-making year if Denzel Washington in nominated for The Tragedy of Macbeth as it will be his first BAFTA nomination ever. You read that right. The two-time Oscar winner, and most-nominated Black actor in Oscar history – has never so much as been nominated for his work over his 30+ year career. Everything hinges on who the top two vote-getters were for the initial longlist and then where the small jury decides to go.
The Rising Star category in the past has been quite populist, both in its nominations and the winner selection, which is voted on by the public. That’s where we’ve gotten winners like Tom Holland and Kristen Stewart in the past. Last year’s nominees were very homegrown, with no major stars or U.S. actors that normally populate the list. It also found the rare crossover of a nominee there (Bukky Bakray) also showing up on the main BAFTA nomination list. Since we only have one year under our belts we can’t call last year’s list a trend but in the interest of the possibility, my predictions there reflect that possibility so I don’t have names like Rachel Zegler or Alana Haim or Emilia Jones in the top 5, although any would be an easy choice in previous years (and maybe this one). Nominees here will be announced on February 1.
BAFTA-winner Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes and Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker), and actresses Sadie Frost (Waiting for Anya) and Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), plus a other industry experts, will select the EE Rising Star Award shortlist for the 2022 EE British Academy Film Awards.
Special eligibility measures were put in place for the 2021 Film Awards to take into account the Coronavirus pandemic to cover films released January 1 – June 30, 2021. These films would have needed to meet the lower qualifying threshold of a minimum of one theatrical screening per day for seven days (excluding festival screenings); or an approved UK VOD platform minimum 30-day release if the original intention of a theatrical release was not possible due to the pandemic.
From July 1, 2021 – March 11, 2022 films were eligible if they had been theatrically exhibited publicly to a paying audience on at least ten commercial screens in the UK for at least seven days in aggregate (excluding festival screenings).
As a reminder, the longlists are here with top mentions below:
West Side Story – 15
Don’t Look Up – 15
Belfast – 14
The Power of the Dog – 14
House of Gucci – 13
Dune – 12
No Time To Die – 12
The French Dispatch – 11
Licorice Pizza – 11
Being the Ricardos – 9
The Lost Daughter – 9
The Tragedy of Macbeth – 8
CODA – 7
King Richard – 7
Passing – 7
Tick… Tick… Boom – 6
The Hand of God – 5
Spencer – 4
Last season there were seven movies with 10 or more appearances on the longlists:
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (15), Mank (14), Promising Young Woman (13), News of the World (12) and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Mauritanian, Saint Maud (11).
Of those, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman and The Mauritanian earned BAFTA Best Film nominations alongside The Father and Nomadland, both of which earned 8 longlist mentions. Nomadland won the BAFTA Best Film Award and the Oscar for Best Picture.
As is the case for the Academy Awards this year, the 2022 BAFTAs will no longer allow DVDs for viewer voting. To qualify, all titles must also be made available to BAFTA voting members on BAFTA View, BAFTA’s online viewing platform, as soon as possible after the date of release and within 60 days of UK release for a minimum of 30 consecutive days.
Nominations for the 2022 BAFTAs will be announced on February 3. Winners will be announced live on March 13 at the Royal Albert Hall in a ceremony hosted by Rebel Wilson.
Here are my predictions for the 2022 BAFTA nominations.
BEST FILM (5)
This is the only category voted for by all film voting members in all voting rounds. 217 films were submitted for consideration.
- Belfast
- Dune
- Licorice Pizza
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Spoilers: CODA, Don’t Look Up, No Time to Die
DIRECTOR (6)
Round Two is voted on by a jury (nominations) and Round Three is voted on by the general membership (winner). To determine this longlist, in Round One, the directing chapter voted; the top seven female and top seven male directed films were automatically longlisted. The remaining 3 female and 3 male directors were voted for by a Longlisting jury, who have considered the next 10 ranking female and male directed films. A nominating jury will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 184 films were submitted for consideration.
- Aleem Khan – After Love
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
- Denis Villeneuve – Dune
- Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God
- Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
- Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Spoilers: Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Sian Heder – CODA, Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
LEADING ACTOR (6)
Round Two is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 102 performances were submitted for consideration.
- Adeel Akhtar – Ali & Ava
- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
- Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!
- Stephen Graham – Boiling Point
- Will Smith – King Richard
- Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Spoiler: Riz Ahmed – Encounter, Daniel Craig – No Time to Die, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano
LEADING ACTRESS (6)
Round Two is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 82 performances were submitted for consideration.
- Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
- Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
- Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World
- Claire Rushbook – Ali & Ava
- Joanna Scanlan – After Love
- Tessa Thompson – Passing
Spoilers: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Lady Gaga – House of Gucci, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Kristen Stewart – Spencer
SUPPORTING ACTOR (6)
Round Two is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 283 performances were submitted for consideration.
- Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
- Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
- Troy Kotsur – CODA
- Woody Norman – C’mon C’mon
- Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
- Kodi Smit–McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Spoiler: Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Mike Faist – West Side Story
SUPPORTING ACTRESS (6)
Round Two is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 202 performances were submitted for consideration.
- Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
- Judi Dench – Belfast
- Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
- Kathryn Hunter – The Tragedy of Macbeth
- Ruth Negga – Passing
- Vinette Robinson – Boiling Point
Spoiler: Caitríona Balfe – Belfast, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
CASTING (5)
Round Two is voted on by a jury (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 89 films were submitted in this category. Casting Statements, written by the Casting Directors about the casting process, are provided by the entrants and shared with the jury in Round Two and published on BAFTA View.
- After Love
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- King Richard
- West Side Story
Spoilers: Boiling Point, House of Gucci, The Power of the Dog
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM (10)
10 films will be nominated in this category. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 64 films were submitted for consideration, all of which passed the BFI Diversity Standards.
- After Love
- Ali & Ava
- Belfast
- Benediction
- Boiling Point
- Cyrano
- House of Gucci
- Last Night in Soho
- No Time to Die
- Passing
Spoiler: The Duke, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Spencer
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER (5)
10 films have been longlisted, and five will be nominated. The longlist, nominees and winner in this category are voted on by a jury. 37 films were submitted for consideration.
- After Love
- Boiling Point
- Censor
- Passing
- Sweetheart
Spoilers: The Harder They Fall, Hostile, The Power
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 62 films were submitted for consideration.
- CODA
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- The Lost Daughter
- The Power of the Dog
Spoilers: Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 78 films were submitted for consideration.
- Being the Ricardos
- Belfast
- Don’t Look Up
- The Hand of God
- Licorice Pizza
Spoilers: After Love, The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, The Worst Person in the World
EDITING (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 154 films were submitted for consideration.
- Belfast
- Dune
- No Time to Die
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Spoilers: Last Night in Soho, Summer of Soul, tick, tick…BOOM!
CINEMATOGRAPHY (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 126 films were submitted for consideration.
- Belfast
- Dune
- The Power of the Dog
- The Tragedy of Macbeth
- West Side Story
Spoilers: The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die
PRODUCTION DESIGN (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 99 films were submitted for consideration.
- Dune
- The French Dispatch
- Nightmare Alley
- The Tragedy of Macbeth
- West Side Story
Spoilers: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, The Power of the Dog
COSTUME DESIGN (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 86 films were submitted for consideration.
- Cruella
- Cyrano
- Dune
- House of Gucci
- West Side Story
Spoilers: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley
MAKEUP AND HAIR (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) where five films will be nominated and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 77 films were submitted for consideration.
- Cruella
- Cyrano
- Dune
- The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- House of Gucci
Spoilers: Being the Ricardos, Coming 2 America, West Side Story
ORIGINAL SCORE (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 101 films were submitted for consideration. Music cue sheets are provided by the entrants and published on BAFTA View for the music chapter in Rounds One and Two, and for all voting members in Round Three.
- Don’t Look Up
- Dune
- The French Dispatch
- The Power of the Dog
- Spencer
Spoilers: Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, No Time to Die
SOUND (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 126 films were submitted for consideration.
- Belfast
- Dune
- No Time to Die
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Spoilers: The Harder They Fall, Last Night in Soho, A Quiet Place Part II
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS (5)
Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 56 films were submitted for consideration. Entrants can submit a supporting Statement and a show-reel of the SVFX work (up to five minutes in duration); this will be published on BAFTA View for the general voting membership in Round Three.
- Dune
- Eternals
- The Matrix Resurrections
- No Time to Die
- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spoilers: Black Widow, Free Guy, Venom: Let There Be Carnage
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE (5)
This category is voted for in all three Rounds by an opt-in Chapter. 50 films were submitted for consideration.
- Drive My Car
- Flee
- The Hand of God
- A Hero
- The Worst Person in the World
Spoilers: Parallel Mothers, Petite Maman, Titane
DOCUMENTARY (5)
The top two films from the opt-in chapter vote in Round One automatically receive a nomination. The next ranking 13 films will be considered by a jury, who will vote for three nominations. Five films will be nominated in this category. In Round three, the Documentary opt-in chapter will select the winner in this category.
- Flee
- The Rescue
- The Sparks Brothers
- Summer of Soul
- The Velvet Underground
Spoilers: Becoming Cousteau, Billie Eilish: The World’s a Bit Blurry, Cow
ANIMATED FILM (4)
This category is voted for in all three Rounds by an opt-in Chapter. 14 films were submitted for consideration. Four films will be nominated.
- Encanto
- Flee
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines
- Raya and the Last Dragon
Spoilers: Sing 2
RISING STAR (5)
- Lauren Ajufo (Boiling Point)
- Mike Faist (West Side Story)
- Moses Ingram (The Queen’s Gambit/Last Night in Soho)
- Toheeb Jimoh (Ted Lasso, The French Dispatch)
- Agathe Rousselle (Titane)
Spoilers: Emilia Jones, Simu Liu, Thomasin McKenzie, Rachel Zegler
Photo: BAFTA/Marc Hoberman
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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