2022 Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Drama Series

With so many shows on television at this point, every race at the Emmys looks to be an exciting one. Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama could reveal itself to be one such race as new and old contenders will compete against each other for one of six spots in the category. With only one nominee from last year eligible for this year’s race, it will surely give us something to remember. 

Sterling K. Brown, who has been nominated in this category four times before including last year, will surely be nominated for the final outing of This Is Us. Brown has won once before, so he will be stiff competition. He won’t be the only one in competition for his show’s final season, though, as he will likely be joined by Jason Bateman for Ozark. Bateman has been nominated for the previous three seasons of the show, so it seems likely the Television Academy will nominate him for the fourth and final season. Then there’s the two leads from Succession: Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox. Both have previously been nominated in this category for the hit HBO drama, with Strong pulling out the win. With Succession looking to be a huge hit at this year’s Emmys, it would only make sense that both of them would be nominated again for the third season of the series. 

Competition comes from everywhere this year, including Bob Odenkirk from Better Call Saul. Odenkirk has been nominated four times for his role on the AMC drama – with the first half of the final season airing now, he’s definitely in the mix to receive his fifth nomination for the series. Yellowstone received its first SAG Ensemble nomination earlier this year, could the Emmys be next for the series? If so, voters might look toward Kevin Costner’s lead performance to include in the pool of actors this year. Voters also might be drawn to the strange world of Severance, where Adam Scott could receive his first ever Emmy nomination for his performance. Squid Game star Lee Jung-jae might ride from his SAG win straight into the Emmys. There’s also a case to be made for Jonathan Bailey to join his Bridgerton family member Regé-Jean Page as a nominee for the second season for the Netflix historical romance. Lastly, could it be John C. Reilly’s year to become an Emmy nominee? There’s much buzz about the HBO drama Winning Time, but will it last to nominations? 

Here are my predictions for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series:

1. Jeremy Strong, Succession
2. Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
3. Jason Bateman, Ozark
4. Brian Cox, Succession
5. Sterling K. Brown, This is Us
6. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Look out for: Adam Scott, Severance; Kevin Costner, Yellowstone; Lee Min-Ho, Pachinko; John C. Reilly, Winning Time; Jonathan Bailey, Bridgerton