2022 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (October)

Netflix could dominate the Adapted Screenplay race in a substantial way this year with Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter and Rebecca Hall’s Passing – all screenplays they adapted in films they directed. It would be a powerful and historical precedent for the Oscars as the category has never seen more than two women credited as writers among the five nominated films in a single year. The Lost Daughter and Passing led the Gotham Awards nominations last week (The Power of the Dog was ineligible) including nods for screenplay. But it’s not just Netflix that has strong women contenders here: Searchlight Pictures has Nightmare Alley co-written by Kim Morgan and Siân Heder adapted and directed CODA. We could have a season where all five nominees have a female writer behind them.

Original Screenplay is a murderer’s row of Academy favorites with previous nominees and winners Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) and Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) all vying for spots against bracing newcomers (to the Oscars, anyway) like Zach Baylin (King Richard), Steven Knight (Spencer) and Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World).

Over at Next Best Picture, Will Mavity detailed a handful of films whose category placement might be a bit tenuous, including King Richard and The Worst Person in the World, either of which are being pushed in original but might find their way to adapted if the Academy so chooses.

Here are my ranked 2022 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for October 2021.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) ↔
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) ↑
3. Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
4. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) ↑
5. Passing – Rebecca Hall (Netflix) ↑
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (A24/Apple) ↓
7. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth, Jon Spaiths (Warner Bros) ↔
8. House of Gucci – Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna (MGM/UA) ↔
9. The Humans – Steven Karam (A24) ↓
10. The Last Duel – Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Nicole Holofcener (20th Century Studios) ↔

Other contenders: Cyrano – Joe Wright (MGM), The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Abe Sylvia (Searchlight Pictures), The Green Knight – David Lowery (A24), The Tender Bar – William Monahan (Amazon Studios), tick, tick…Boom! – Steven Levenson (Netflix), West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20th Century Studios), Zola – Janicza Bravo, Jeremy O. Harris, A’Ziah King (A24)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) ↔
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UA) ↔
3. C’mon C’mon – Mike Mills (A24) ↔
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros) ↑
5. The Worst Person in the World – Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt (NEON) ↑
6. Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodóvar (Sony Pictures Classics) ↔
7. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) ↓
8. A Hero – Asghar Farhadi (Amazon Studios) ♦
9. Spencer – Steven Knight (NEON) ↔
10. The Hand of God – Paolo Sorrentino (Netflix) ↓

Other contenders: Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios), Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen ♦ (NEON), The French Dispatch – Wes Anderson ↓ (Searchlight Pictures), Last Night in Soho – Edgar Wright (Focus Features), Mass – Franz Kranz (Bleecker Street), Red Rocket – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch ♦ (A24), Swan Song – Benjamin Cleary (Apple Original Films), Titane – Julia Ducournau, Jacques Akchoti, Simonetta Greggio ♦ (NEON)

Photos: Yannis Drakouldis/Netflix; NEON